BACKGROUND Globally, dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya are important viral mosquito-borne diseases that infect millions of people annually. Their geographic range includes not only tropical areas but also sub-tropical and temperate zones such as Japan and Italy. The relative severity of these arboviral disease outbreaks can vary depending on the setting. In this study we explore variation in the epidemiologic potential of outbreaks amongst these climatic zones and arboviruses in order to elucidate potential reasons behind such differences. METHODOLOGY We reviewed the peer-reviewed literature (PubMed) to obtain basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya from tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions. We also computed R0 estimates for temperate and sub-tropical climate zones, based on the outbreak curves in the initial outbreak phase. Lastly we compared these estimates across climate zones, defined by latitude. RESULTS Of 2115 studies, we reviewed the full text of 128 studies and included 65 studies in our analysis. Our results suggest that the R0 of an arboviral outbreak depends on climate zone, with lower R0 estimates, on average, in temperate zones (R0 = 2.03) compared to tropical (R0 = 3.44) and sub-tropical zones (R0 = 10.29). The variation in R0 was considerable, ranging from 0.16 to 65. The largest R0 was for dengue (65) and was estimated by the Ross-Macdonald model in the tropical zone, whereas the smallest R0 (0.16) was for Zika virus and was estimated statistically from an outbreak curve in the sub-tropical zone. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate climate zone to be an important determinant of the basic reproduction number, R0, for dengue, Zika virus, and chikungunya. The role of other factors as determinants of R0, such as methods, environmental and social conditions, and disease control, should be further investigated. The results suggest that R0 may increase in temperate regions in response to global warming, and highlight the increasing need for strengthening preparedness and control activities.

中文翻译：

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审查全球气候区登革热，寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热的基本繁殖数量估计。

背景技术在全球范围内，登革热，寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热是重要的病毒蚊媒疾病，每年感染数百万人。它们的地理范围不仅包括热带地区，而且还包括亚热带和温带地区，例如日本和意大利。这些虫媒病毒疾病暴发的相对严重程度可能会因环境而异。在这项研究中，我们探讨了这些气候区和虫媒病毒在暴发中的流行病学潜力，以阐明这种差异背后的潜在原因。方法学我们回顾了同行评审的文献（PubMed），以获得来自热带，亚热带和温带地区的登革热，寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热的基本繁殖数量（R0）估计。我们还计算了温带和亚热带气候区的R0估计值，基于初始爆发阶段的爆发曲线。最后，我们比较了由纬度定义的整个气候区的这些估计。结果在2115项研究中，我们回顾了128项研究的全文，并在分析中纳入了65项研究。我们的结果表明，虫媒病毒暴发的R0取决于气候区，与热带地区（R0 = 3.44）和亚热带地区（R0 = 10.29）相比，温带区（R0 = 2.03）的R0估计值平均较低。R0的变化很大，范围从0.16到65。最大的R0是登革热（65），由Ross-Macdonald模型在热带地区估计，而最小的R0（0.16）是针对寨卡病毒，并且估计为从亚热带地区的爆发曲线进行统计分析。结论结果表明，气候区是登革热，寨卡病毒和基孔肯雅热的基本繁殖数量R0的重要决定因素。其他因素作为R0决定因素的作用，例如方法，环境和社会条件以及疾病控制，应进一步研究。结果表明，随着全球气候变暖，R0可能在温带地区增加，并突出了对加强准备和控制活动的日益增长的需求。