Avian malaria is a mosquito-borne parasitic disease of birds caused by protists of the genera Plasmodium, most notably Plasmodium relictum. This disease has been identified as a primary cause of the drastic decline and extinctions of birds, in particular Hawaiian honeycreepers (Drepanidinae), where rates of mortality may exceed 90%. We formulate an epizootiological model of the transmission dynamics of avian malaria between populations of bird hosts and mosquito vectors using a system of compartmental ordinary differential equations. We derive the basic reproduction number as well as criteria for the existence and local stability of disease-free and enzootic equilibria. These results provide useful information for evaluating management strategies. A local sensitivity analysis of certain model invariants to uncertain parameter values is performed to ascertain which biological factors have the largest impact on ecological outcomes and, in particular, long-term bird population densities. We discuss and compare the effectiveness of two disease control and conservation strategies: captive propagation of honeycreepers and larval mosquito habitat reduction. We provide examples of combinations of these strategies that either are predicted to eliminate enzootic avian malaria or to increase predicted bird density above a given ecologically meaningful threshold.

中文翻译：

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模拟禽类疟疾对夏威夷蜜爬虫的种群影响：分叉分析及其对保护的意义。

禽疟疾是由疟原虫属（Plasmodium）的原生生物导致的一种由蚊子引起的鸟类寄生虫病。该疾病已被确定为鸟类，尤其是夏威夷蜜cre（Drepanidinae）的大幅度下降和灭绝的主要原因，其死亡率可能超过90％。我们使用隔室常微分方程系统，建立了禽疟疾在鸟类宿主和蚊媒之间的传播动力学的动物流行病学模型。我们得出基本的繁殖数量，以及无病和动物平衡的存在和局部稳定性的标准。这些结果为评估管理策略提供了有用的信息。对某些模型不变量对不确定的参数值进行局部敏感性分析，以确定哪些生物学因素对生态结果，尤其是长期鸟类种群密度的影响最大。我们讨论并比较了两种疾病控制和保护策略的有效性：蜜爬行者的圈养繁殖和幼体蚊子栖息地减少。我们提供了这些策略组合的示例，这些组合可以预测消除根虫性禽疟或将预测的鸟类密度提高到给定的对生态有意义的阈值以上。捕食蜜honey的繁殖和减少幼虫的栖息地。我们提供了这些策略组合的示例，这些组合可以预测消除根源性禽类疟疾或将预测的鸟类密度提高到给定的对生态有意义的阈值以上。捕食蜜honey的繁殖和减少幼虫的栖息地。我们提供了这些策略组合的示例，这些组合可以预测消除根虫性禽疟或将预测的鸟类密度提高到给定的对生态有意义的阈值以上。