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Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations.
Population Studies ( IF 2.828 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-07 , DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880
John Cleland 1 , Kazuyo Machiyama 1 , John B Casterline 2
Affiliation  

Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

中文翻译:

非洲和亚洲的生育偏好和随后的生育:来自对28个人口的纵向研究的证据综合。

关于生育偏好的调查数据在生育研究和计划生育倡导中发挥了核心但有争议的作用。我们总结了对28个亚洲和非洲人口进行的纵向研究的证据,这些研究涉及偏好与随后生育之间的关系。虽然我们没有发现妇女延迟生育的愿望与随后的生育能力之间存在一致的关联,但是妇女停止生育的基本愿望是所有人群随后生育能力的有力预测指标,并且随着研究人群总体避孕手段的使用增加,强度也有所提高。伴侣的愿望也产生了一定的影响,但在大多数人群中重要性不高。但是,发现停止欲望和行为之间的对应关系远非完美。通过避孕手段实施的偏好偏弱可能是导致这种偏好的主要原因-行为差异。优惠的不确定性和不稳定性也可能导致差异,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲。
更新日期:2019-11-07
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