We develop a semiempirical grey radiative model to quantify Titan's surface temperature as a function of pressure and composition of a nitrogen-methane-hydrogen atmosphere, solar flux and atmospheric haze. We then use this model, together with non-ideal gas-liquid equilibrium theory to investigate the behavior of the coupled surface-atmosphere system on Titan. We find that a volatile-rich Titan is unstable with respect to a runaway greenhouse-small increases in solar luminosity from the present value can lead to massive increases in surface temperature. If methane has been photolyzed throughout Titan's history, then this runaway can only be avoided if the photolytic ethane is removed from the surface-atmosphere system.

中文翻译：

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泰坦气候稳定性的分析调查：对挥发性库存的敏感性

我们开发了一个半经验灰色辐射模型来量化泰坦的表面温度，作为压力和氮-甲烷-氢大气成分、太阳通量和大气雾度的函数。然后我们使用这个模型，结合非理想气液平衡理论来研究泰坦上耦合表面大气系统的行为。我们发现富含挥发物的泰坦相对于失控的温室是不稳定的——太阳光度从现值的小幅增加会导致表面温度的大量增加。如果在泰坦的整个历史中甲烷一直被光解，那么只有将光解乙烷从地表大气系统中去除，才能避免这种失控。