The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. Here, we demonstrate how Qualitative Network Models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision-making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab Paralithodes platypus (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) and show how their potential efficacy may change when considered under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, and potential climate change impacts. In addition, we applied a simple and computationally efficient simulation procedure that incorporates information on relative interaction strengths using inequality conditions into predictions. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable under one intervention scenario: stock enhancement as part of a BKC hatchery program. However, when climate change was accounted for the intervention was not able to counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty which can be used to inform research prioritization, guide model refinement, and aid the development of more targeted quantitative models. QNMs are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in the conservation arena. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译：

---

快速评估气候变化下促进数据贫乏物种种群重建的管理方案

物种恢复计划的制定需要考虑不同管理干预措施的可能结果，但很少评估气候变化的复杂影响。在这里，我们展示了如何部署定性网络模型 (QNM) 以在数据、时间和资金限制限制使用更苛刻的定量方法时支持决策。我们使用 QNM 来评估旨在促进重建普里比洛夫群岛（白令海东部）附近蓝帝王蟹 Paralithodes platypus (BKC) 倒塌种群的管理干预措施，并展示在考虑气候变化时，它们的潜在功效可能会如何变化。基于利益相关者的意见和文献综述，我们构建了一个 QNM，描述了 BKC 的生命周期、关键生态相互作用和潜在的气候变化影响。此外，我们应用了一种简单且计算效率高的模拟程序，该程序将使用不等式条件的相对交互强度信息纳入预测。在没有气候变化的情况下，BKC 的预测增加在一种干预方案下是可靠的：作为 BKC 孵化场计划的一部分的种群增加。然而，当考虑到气候变化时，干预无法抵消其不利影响，这对 BKC 产生了总体负面影响。其余情景与 BKC 捕食者的捕捞努力量变化有关。对于这些情景，BKC 结果不可靠，但气候变化进一步降低了观察到恢复的可能性。我们进行了敏感性分析，以确定预测不确定性的关键来源，可用于确定研究优先级，指导模型细化，帮助开发更有针对性的量化模型。当数据有限时，QNM 是有用的选择，但它们在保护领域仍未得到充分利用。本文受版权保护。版权所有。