The future of tropical forest biodiversity depends more than ever on the effective management of human-modified landscapes, presenting a daunting challenge to conservation practitioners and land use managers. We provide a critical synthesis of the scientific insights that guide our understanding of patterns and processes underpinning forest biodiversity in the human-modified tropics, and present a conceptual framework that integrates a broad range of social and ecological factors that define and contextualize the possible future of tropical forest species. A growing body of research demonstrates that spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity are the dynamic product of interacting historical and contemporary human and ecological processes. These processes vary radically in their relative importance within and among regions, and have effects that may take years to become fully manifest. Interpreting biodiversity research findings is frequently made difficult by constrained study designs, low congruence in species responses to disturbance, shifting baselines and an over-dependence on comparative inferences from a small number of well studied localities. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the potential prospects for biodiversity conservation can be explained by regional differences in biotic vulnerability and anthropogenic legacies, an ever-tighter coupling of human-ecological systems and the influence of global environmental change. These differences provide both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Building upon our synthesis we outline a simple adaptive-landscape planning framework that can help guide a new research agenda to enhance biodiversity conservation prospects in the human-modified tropics.

中文翻译：

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在人类改造的世界中热带森林生物多样性的前景。

热带森林生物多样性的未来比以往任何时候都更依赖于对人类改造景观的有效管理，这给养护从业者和土地利用管理者带来了艰巨的挑战。我们对科学见解进行了批判性的综合，指导我们对人类改造过的热带森林森林生物多样性的模式和过程的理解，并提出了一个概念框架，该框架整合了广泛的社会和生态因素，这些因素定义并结合了环境的未来可能。热带森林物种。越来越多的研究表明，生物多样性的时空格局是历史和当代人类与生态过程相互作用的动态产物。这些过程在区域内部和区域之间的相对重要性上有着根本的不同，并可能需要数年才能完全显现出来。受限制的研究设计，物种对干扰的反应一致性低，基线变化以及对来自少数经过充分研究的地区的比较推断的过度依赖，常常难以解释生物多样性研究的结果。潜在的生物多样性保护前景的时空异质性可以用生物脆弱性和人为遗产的区域差异，人类生态系统的日益紧密的耦合以及全球环境变化的影响来解释。这些差异为生物多样性的保护提供了挑战和机遇。