The water wars rationale predicts that countries will wage war to safeguard their access to water resources, especially if there is water scarcity, competitive use and the countries are enemies due to a wider conflict. Following this argument, India and Pakistan should have fought a war over the Indus basin instead of negotiating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. In explaining this Indo-Pakistan cooperation which is specifically over water, the critical feature that emerges is that through cooperation the countries were able to safeguard their long-term water supply. In other words, cooperation is water rational. Using the Indus basin experience, the underlying logic of the water wars rationale is questioned, in particular, the use of public statements by key decisionmakers as evidence of future water wars and is shown to be wanting.

中文翻译：

---

质疑水战的理由：印度河水域条约的案例研究

水资源战争的理由预测，各国将发动战争以保护其对水资源的获取，尤其是在水资源短缺、竞争性使用以及由于更广泛的冲突而成为敌人的情况下。根据这一论点，印度和巴基斯坦应该为印度河流域开战，而不是谈判 1960 年的《印度河流域条约》。在解释这种专门针对水的印巴合作时，出现的关键特征是，通过合作，各国能够保障其长期供水。换句话说，合作是水理性的。使用印度河流域的经验，水战基本原理的基本逻辑受到质疑，特别是关键决策者使用公开声明作为未来水战的证据，并被证明是缺乏的。