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On the resurgent population and food debate.
The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 1997-03-01 , DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.00001
D. Gale Johnson

During the 1980s, the European Union, the US, and Japan followed policies designed to limit the production of grain. In so doing, the production and stock of grain declined during the decade in developed countries. However, grain production increased in developing countries during the 1980s, causing the overall world supply of grain to grow faster than demand. International market prices for grain have been falling since the 1970s. Despite claims to the contrary, reputable studies of prospective food supply and demand indicate that there will be continued improvement in per capita food consumption, especially in the developing countries. It is highly unlikely that the factors which affect world food supply and demand can either stop the decline in real market prices for grain or result in more than a modest increase in world grain trade. While China may become a major grain importer, central and eastern Europe may become major net grain exporters who compete with traditional exporters. The likely future trend in real world grain prices is good news for urban consumers, but farmers in developing countries will have to continually adjust to the eroding prices of their product. The author discusses population and well-being since Malthus' first edition, the population growth rate as an unimportant factor in determining population well-being, negative population growth rates, recent world food developments, prospects for the future supply and demand of food, and implications for world trade.
更新日期:2019-11-01
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