The statistical basis of Winegarden's conclusions, i.e., that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase in fertility, was examined in detail in that it casts doubt about the validity of all previous econometric studies based on international cross-sectional data. Winegarden's model is reproduced as are his findings. The reexamination of Winegarden's (1984) findings revealed 3 areas which suggest that his conclusions may require modification. In regard to family planning, Winegarden's results indicated that the introduction of a state-supported family planning program would cause a large decline in natality after about a decade. A much weaker relationship emerged when the fertility equation was recomputed using a more appropriate economic method. Further, the results were highly sensitive to changes in the threshold year used to classify countries with regard to family planning programs. It is argued that a qualitative index devised by Mauldin and Berelson (1978) provides a more reliable way to measure the effects of such programs than the binary variable Winegarden used. The use of this index fundamentally altered the findings regarding economic growth and income distribution. According to Winegarden's calculations, faster economic growth would have a pronatal impact in the more economically advanced nations yet help to reduce fertility for those countries in the early stages of development. In contrast, it was found that variations in the rate of economic growth had no discernible impact on natality. Winegarden's results suggested that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes would cause substantial increase in fertility in a typical low-income country, but it was found here that these distributional effects would be fairly modest over a wide range of incomes. Consequently, it appears that any concern about the demographic effects of greater equality in less-developed countries is not well-founded. The potential for reducing natality in the richer nations by means of income redistribution may be overstated by Winegarden's results.

中文翻译：

---

重新审视收入再分配和经济增长加速的人口影响

Winegarden 的结论的统计基础，即典型的低收入国家的平均收入再分配会导致生育率的大幅增加，被详细审查，因为它对之前所有基于国际的计量经济学研究的有效性提出了怀疑。横截面数据。Winegarden 的模型和他的发现一样被复制。对 Winegarden (1984) 研究结果的复查揭示了 3 个方面，表明他的结论可能需要修改。在计划生育方面，Winegarden 的结果表明，国家支持的计划生育计划的引入将导致大约十年后出生率大幅下降。当使用更合适的经济方法重新计算生育率方程时，出现了更弱的关系。更多，结果对用于对国家进行计划生育方案分类的阈值年份的变化高度敏感。有人认为，与使用二元变量 Winegarden 相比，Mauldin 和 Berelson (1978) 设计的定性指数提供了一种更可靠的方法来衡量此类计划的效果。该指数的使用从根本上改变了有关经济增长和收入分配的研究结果。根据 Winegarden 的计算，较快的经济增长将对经济较发达的国家产生影响，但有助于降低处于发展早期阶段的国家的生育率。相比之下，发现经济增长率的变化对出生率没有明显影响。酒园' 研究结果表明，在一个典型的低收入国家，收入的平等再分配会导致生育率大幅增加，但这里发现，这些分配效应在广泛的收入范围内是相当温和的。因此，对欠发达国家更平等的人口影响的任何担忧似乎都没有充分根据。Winegarden 的结果可能夸大了通过收入再分配减少富裕国家出生率的潜力。