According to the current rule-based risk management approach at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the effort is directed to contain all identified risks of a program. The identification of hazards and mitigation effort proceeds along with the development of the system hardware, till all the tradable resources for a program is exhausted. In this process, no conscious effort is made to evaluate risks and associated cost, and the final design is likely to have undesirable residual risks. This approach also results in allocating a significant amount of resources to gain only marginal mitigation of hazard and leave some undesirable hazards in the system due to the budget limitation. The approach in the proposed knowledge-based risk planning system makes a conscious attempt to trade risk with other resources, e.g., schedule, cost, reliability, performance, and others in a judicious and cost-effective way. A knowledge of the feasible option sets requiring high incremental cost for a marginal gain in hazard reduction helps the management to make decision for residual risk that falls within an acceptable range for an option set.

中文翻译：

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空间项目风险规划的创新方法

根据美国国家航空航天局 (NASA) 当前基于规则的风险管理方法，这项工作旨在控制项目的所有已识别风险。危险的识别和缓解工作随着系统硬件的开发而进行，直到程序的所有可交易资源都用完为止。在这个过程中，没有刻意去评估风险和相关成本，最终的设计很可能存在不良的残余风险。这种方法还导致分配大量资源来仅获得对危害的边际缓解，并且由于预算限制而在系统中留下一些不希望的危害。建议的基于知识的风险规划系统中的方法有意识地尝试将风险与其他资源（例如进度、成本、以明智且具有成本效益的方式提高可靠性、性能和其他方面。了解需要高增量成本以减少危害的边际收益的可行选项集有助于管理层对落入选项集可接受范围内的剩余风险做出决策。