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Mathematical modeling of dengue epidemic: control methods and vaccination strategies.
Theory in Biosciences ( IF 1.1 ) Pub Date : 2019-02-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s12064-019-00273-7
Sylvestre Aureliano Carvalho 1 , Stella Olivia da Silva 2 , Iraziet da Cunha Charret 2
Affiliation  

Dengue is, in terms of death and economic cost, one of the most important infectious diseases in the world. So, its mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool to help us to understand the dynamics of the disease and to infer about its spreading by the proposition of control methods. In this paper, control strategies, which aim to eliminate the Aedes aegypti mosquito, as well as proposals for the vaccination campaign are evaluated. In our mathematical model, the mechanical control is accomplished through the environmental support capacity affected by a discrete function that represents the removal of breedings. Chemical control is carried out using insecticide and larvicide. The efficiency of vaccination is studied through the transfer of a fraction of individuals, proportional to the vaccination rate, from the susceptible to the recovered compartments. Our major find is that the dengue fever epidemic is only eradicated with the use of an immunizing vaccine because control measures, directed against its vector, are not enough to halt the disease spreading. Even when the infected mosquitoes are eliminated from the system, the susceptible ones are still present, and infected humans cause dengue fever to reappear in the human population.

中文翻译:

登革热流行的数学模型:控制方法和疫苗接种策略。

就死亡和经济损失而言,登革热是世界上最重要的传染病之一。因此,其数学模型可以成为帮助我们了解疾病动态并通过控制方法的命题推断其传播的有价值的工具。在本文中,旨在消除埃及伊蚊的控制策略蚊子以及疫苗接种运动的建议都经过评估。在我们的数学模型中,机械控制是通过环境支持能力来实现的,环境支持能力受代表育种去除的离散函数影响。使用杀虫剂和杀幼虫剂进行化学防治。疫苗接种的效率是通过将一部分与疫苗接种率成比例的个体从易感人群转移到康复区来进行研究的。我们的主要发现是,仅通过使用免疫疫苗就可以消除登革热流行,因为针对其载体的控制措施不足以阻止疾病传播。即使从系统中清除了被感染的蚊子,仍然存在易感的蚊子,
更新日期:2019-02-10
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