Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional populations. Here we present a vulnerability analysis of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation integrity inside and around PAs and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). The combination of hazard level and resilience status allows the proposition of broad adaptation pathways to cope with climate change in these PAs. We found 17 PAs (covering 20,611 km2 ) rated as highly vulnerable, located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Other 258 PAs, covering 756,569 km2 , located primarily in Amazonia are categorized as having a moderate/medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drives vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. More than 80% of these PAs under a high or moderate vulnerability are PAs managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people who inhabit these PAs may be threatened in the future. In at least 870 PAs, the majority of them located in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate change hazard and/or high resilience status. A smaller number of at least 20 PAs, located in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for deeper interventions, such as improvement of ecological connectivity, given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to interconnect vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that part of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future. Article impact statement: A minority of Brazilian protected areas are highly vulnerable to climate change and demand strong adaptation-oriented management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译：

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巴西保护区的气候变化脆弱性和适应评估

巴西在保护区 (PA) 内拥有最广阔的热带生态系统，为生物多样性提供庇护并支持传统种群。在这里，我们通过将气候变化危害指标与 PA 恢复力指标（大小、PA 内部和周围的原生植被完整性以及气候驱动的植被转变的可能性）相结合，对 993 个陆地和沿海-海洋巴西 PA 进行了脆弱性分析。灾害水平和复原力状态的结合允许提出广泛的适应途径来应对这些保护区的气候变化。我们发现 17 个保护区（覆盖 20,611 平方公里）被评为高度脆弱，主要位于大西洋森林（7 个保护区）、塞拉多（6 个）和亚马逊（4 个）。其他 258 个 PA，覆盖 756,569 平方公里，主要位于亚马逊地区被归类为具有中等/中等漏洞。在亚马逊和塞拉多西部，尽管保护区的保护状况总体良好，但预计的严重气候变化和气候驱动的植被转变的可能性会增加脆弱性。这些处于高度或中等脆弱性的保护区中有 80% 以上是由土著居民管理的保护区。因此，除了对生物多样性的潜在风险之外，居住在这些保护区的人们的传统知识和生计未来可能会受到威胁。在至少 870 个保护区（其中大部分位于大西洋森林和亚马逊地区）中，由于气候变化危害低和/或恢复力状态高，几乎不需要干预即可实现适应。少数至少 20 个保护区，位于塞拉多的大西洋森林，考虑到亚马孙河流域的低复原力状态，它们应该针对更深入的干预措施，例如改善生态连通性。尽管是首次尝试将巴西保护区的脆弱性和适应联系起来，但我们建议在不久的将来，应优先考虑被确定为高度或中度脆弱的部分保护区，以测试潜在的适应策略。文章影响声明：少数巴西保护区极易受到气候变化的影响，需要以适应为导向的强有力的管理。本文受版权保护。版权所有。我们建议，在不久的将来，应优先考虑被确定为高度或中度脆弱的部分保护区，以测试潜在的适应策略。文章影响声明：少数巴西保护区极易受到气候变化的影响，需要以适应为导向的强有力的管理。本文受版权保护。版权所有。我们建议，在不久的将来，应优先考虑被确定为高度或中度脆弱的部分保护区，以测试潜在的适应策略。文章影响声明：少数巴西保护区极易受到气候变化的影响，需要以适应为导向的强有力的管理。本文受版权保护。版权所有。