A time series intervention analysis (TSIA) of dendrochronological data to infer the tree growth-climate-disturbance relations and forest disturbance history is described. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate the parameters of a structural time series model with components for climate and forest disturbances (i.e., pests, diseases, fire). The statistical method is illustrated with a tree-ring width time series for a mature closed-canopy Douglas-fir stand on the west slopes of the Cascade Mountains of Oregon, USA that is impacted by Swiss needle cast disease caused by the foliar fungus, Phaecryptopus gaeumannii (Rhode) Petrak. The likelihood-based TSIA method is proposed for the field of dendrochronology to understand the interaction of temperature, water, and forest disturbances that are important in forest ecology and climate change studies.

中文翻译：

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一种基于似然的时间序列建模方法，用于树木年代学研究生长-气候关系和森林干扰历史

描述了树木年代学数据的时间序列干预分析 (TSIA)，以推断树木生长-气候-干扰关系和森林干扰历史。最大似然用于估计具有气候和森林干扰（即病虫害、火灾）成分的结构时间序列模型的参数。该统计方法用美国俄勒冈州喀斯喀特山脉西坡的成熟封闭树冠道格拉斯冷杉林分的树轮宽度时间序列进行说明，该林分受由叶真菌 Phaecryptopus 引起的瑞士针管病影响gaeumannii (罗德) 佩特拉克。为树木年代学领域提出了基于似然的 TSIA 方法，以了解在森林生态学和气候变化研究中很重要的温度、水和森林干扰的相互作用。