The objective of this analysis was to explore temporal and spatial variation in teen birth rates TBRs across counties in the USA, from 2003 to 2012, by using hierarchical Bayesian models. Prior examination of spatiotemporal variation in TBRs has been limited by the reliance on large-scale geographies such as states, because of the potential instability in TBRs at smaller geographical scales such as counties. We implemented hierarchical Bayesian models with space-time interaction terms and spatially structured and unstructured random effects to produce smoothed county level TBR estimates, allowing for examination of spatiotemporal patterns and trends in TBRs at a smaller geographic scale across the USA. The results may help to highlight US counties where TBRs are higher or lower and to inform efforts to reduce birth rates to adolescents in the USA further.

中文翻译：

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2003-2012 年美国青少年出生率的时空趋势。

本分析的目的是利用分层贝叶斯模型探讨 2003 年至 2012 年美国各县青少年出生率 TBR 的时间和空间变化。先前对 TBR 时空变化的研究受到对州等大范围地理区域的依赖的限制，因为 TBR 在较小地理范围（如县）中存在潜在的不稳定性。我们实施了具有时空相互作用项以及空间结构化和非结构化随机效应的分层贝叶斯模型，以生成平滑的县级 TBR 估计值，从而可以在美国较小的地理范围内检查 TBR 的时空模式和趋势。研究结果可能有助于突出显示 TBR 较高或较低的美国县，并为进一步降低美国青少年出生率的努力提供信息。