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A method to estimate pre‐exploitation population size
Conservation Biology ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2019-09-12 , DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13416
Catherine M Foley 1 , Heather J Lynch 2
Affiliation  

Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) were commercially exploited on the subantarctic island of South Georgia for over 100 years and nearly driven to extinction. Since the cessation of harvesting, however, their populations have rebounded, and they are now often considered a nuisance species whose impact on the terrestrial landscape should be mitigated. Any evaluation of their current population requires the context provided by their historic, pre-exploitation abundance, lest ecologists fall prey to shifting baseline syndrome in which their perspective on current abundance is compared only with an altered state resulting from past anthropogenic disturbance. Estimating pre-exploitation abundance is critical to defining species recovery and setting recovery targets, both of which are needed for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) recent efforts to develop a green list of recovering species. To address this issue, we reconstructed the South Georgia fur seal harvest from 1786 to 1908 from ship logbooks and other historical records and interpolated missing harvest data as necessary with a generalized linear model fit to the historical record. Using an approximate Bayesian computation framework, harvest data, and a stochastic age-structured population model, we estimated the pre-exploitation abundance of Antarctic fur seals on South Georgia was 2.5 million females (95% CI 1.5- 3.5 million). This estimate is similar to recent abundance estimates, and suggests current populations, and the ecological consequences of so many fur seals on the island, may be similar to conditions prior to human harvest. Although the historic archive on the fur sealing era is unavoidably patchy, the use of archival records is essential for reconstructing the past and, correspondingly, to understanding the present. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

中文翻译:

一种估算开发前种群规模的方法

南极毛皮海豹(Arctocephalusgagella)在南乔治亚岛的亚南极岛上被商业开发了 100 多年,几乎已经灭绝。然而,自从停止采伐以来,它们的数量已经反弹,现在它们通常被认为是一种滋扰物种,应该减轻它们对陆地景观的影响。对其当前种群的任何评估都需要由其历史性的、开发前的丰度提供的背景,以免生态学家陷入基线变化综合症,在这种综合征中,他们对当前丰度的看法仅与过去人为干扰导致的改变状态进行比较。估计开发前的丰度对于确定物种恢复和设定恢复目标至关重要,这两者都是国际自然保护联盟 (IUCN) 最近制定恢复物种绿色清单的努力所必需的。为了解决这个问题,我们根据船舶日志和其他历史记录重建了 1786 年至 1908 年间南乔治亚海狗的收获,并根据需要使用适合历史记录的广义线性模型插入缺失的收获数据。使用近似贝叶斯计算框架、收获数据和随机年龄结构种群模型,我们估计南乔治亚岛南极海豹的开发前丰度为 250 万只雌性(95% CI 1.5-350 万)。这一估计与最近的丰度估计相似,并表明了当前的种群数量,以及岛上如此多的海豹的生态后果,可能与人类收获前的条件相似。尽管海豹时代的历史档案不可避免地是零散的,但档案记录的使用对于重建过去并相应地理解现在至关重要。本文受版权保护。版权所有。
更新日期:2019-09-12
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