Cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania tropica, transmitted by Phlebotomus sergenti and Phlebotomus arabicus, has been detected in Israel. This research strives to identify the complexity of temperature effects on vectors of L. tropica and to analyze seasonality and distribution across altitudinal levels. Sand fly trappings were conducted monthly during 2015‐2016 in an endemic region for L. tropica in the eastern Galilee. Trappings were conducted in hyrax den sites across a broad topographic and climatic gradient. Using N‐mixture models, we investigated the activity levels of sand flies as related to temporary and periodic climatic variables. We tested generality of climate‐driven models using Root‐Mean‐Square Error (RMSE) values by comparing the 2015‐2016 data with trapping data from 2013. P. sergenti activity was found to be positively and exponentially correlated with early night temperatures and more strongly correlated with average early‐night temperatures for two weeks. P. arabicus exhibited a linear correlation with temperature. Climate‐driven models for both species yielded lower RMSE values for the 2013 data, which validate the generality of the models. Considerable differences were found in slope coefficients of temperature effect on sand fly activity among sites related to elevation levels, implying differential local responses of sand flies to temperature.

中文翻译：

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温度对东地中海沿岩石生境梯度的热带利什曼原虫载体活性的影响。

在以色列发现了由热带疫杆菌（Leishmania tropica）引起的皮肤利什曼病，这种疾病是由细支杆菌（Phlebotomus sergenti）和细支杆菌（Phlebotomus arabicus）传播的。这项研究致力于确定温度对热带L. vectora的影响的复杂性，并分析海拔高度上的季节性和分布。在2015-2016年期间，每月在热带风杆菌的流行地区进行沙蝇诱捕在加利利东部。诱捕是在整个地形和气候梯度的非洲蹄兔巢穴中进行的。使用N-混合模型，我们调查了与临时和周期性气候变量相关的沙蝇活动水平。通过将2015-2016年数据与2013年的捕获数据进行比较，我们使用均方根误差（RMSE）值测试了气候驱动模型的一般性。发现实蝇P. sergenti活动与夜间气温呈正相关和指数相关，且更多。与两周的平均夜间气温高度相关。阿拉伯假单胞菌与温度呈线性关系。这两个物种的气候驱动模型在2013年的数据中均得出了较低的RMSE值，这证明了模型的普遍性。在与海拔高度相关的地点之间，温度对沙蝇活动的影响的斜率系数存在显着差异，这表明沙蝇对温度的局部响应有所不同。