OBJECTIVE This study presents a prospective evaluation of the contribution of criminogenic factors, psychiatric symptomatology, and neighborhood-level factors to risk for gun violence by adolescents with criminal justice involvement. HYPOTHESES We hypothesized (a) elevated psychiatric symptom clusters would be associated with increased risk for gun violence after accounting for criminogenic factors; and (b) neighborhood contextual variables would contribute independently to gun violence risk controlling for criminogenic and psychiatric factors. METHOD Data were drawn from the Pathways to Desistance study (Mulvey et al., 2004), a previously collected, longitudinal evaluation of 1,354 adolescents with felony or weapons-based misdemeanor convictions. Participants were located in Arizona and Pennsylvania and aged 14-18 at baseline. The majority identified as male (86.4%) and Black (41.4%) or Hispanic (33.5%). Participants completed interviews at baseline and follow-up over 7 years. This study drew indicators of criminogenic factors, psychiatric factors, ratings of neighborhood context, and self-reported offending verified with criminal justice records. We used discrete time survival analysis to prospectively evaluate the contribution of independent variables to time to gun violence. RESULTS The presence of self-reported threat control override symptoms represented a 56% increase in risk controlling for demographic and criminogenic factors, odds ratio (OR) = 1.56, 95% CI [1.11, 2.18]. Ratings of higher neighborhood gun accessibility represented almost 2.5 times increased risk for gun violence controlling for demographic, criminogenic, and psychiatric factors, OR = 2.48, 95% CI [1.60, 3.85]. CONCLUSIONS Results suggest that consideration of environmental and individual-level factors hold importance for management of community risk and public safety for adolescents with criminal justice involvement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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涉及刑事司法的青少年枪支暴力的相关性。

目的本研究对犯罪因素，精神病学症状学和邻里因素对刑事司法介入青少年枪支暴力风险的贡献进行了前瞻性评估。假设我们假设（a）在考虑到犯罪因素后，精神症状群的增加与枪支暴力风险增加有关；（b）邻里环境变量将独立控制枪支暴力行为，以控制犯罪和精神因素。方法数据来自“抗药途径”研究（Mulvey等人，2004年），该研究是先前收集的对1,354名重罪或基于武器的轻罪定罪青少年的纵向评估。参加者分别位于亚利桑那州和宾夕法尼亚州，基线时年龄为14-18岁。多数为男性（86.4％）和黑人（41.4％）或西班牙裔（33.5％）。参与者完成了基线访问并进行了7年的随访。这项研究绘制了犯罪因素，精神病因素，邻里环境的等级以及经过刑事司法记录验证的自我报告的犯罪行为的指标。我们使用离散时间生存分析来前瞻性地评估自变量对枪支暴力时间的贡献。结果自我报告的威胁控制覆盖症状的存在表示人口统计学和犯罪因素的风险控制增加了56％，优势比（OR）= 1.56，95％CI [1.11、2.18]。较高的邻里枪支可及性等级代表控制人口统计学，犯罪学和精神病学因素的枪支暴力风险增加了近2.5倍，OR = 2.48，95％CI [1.60，3.85]。结论结果表明，环境和个人因素的考虑对于管理刑事司法青少年的社区风险和公共安全至关重要。（PsycINFO数据库记录（c）2019 APA，保留所有权利）。