ABSTRACT As statisticians and scientists consider a world beyond p < 0.05, it is important to not lose sight of how we got to this point. Although significance testing and p-values are often presented as prescriptive procedures, they came about through a process of refinement and extension to other disciplines. Ronald A. Fisher and his contemporaries formalized these methods in the early twentieth century and Fisher’s 1925 Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought the techniques to experimentalists in a variety of disciplines. Understanding how these methods arose, spread, and were argued over since then illuminates how p < 0.05 came to be a standard for scientific inference, the advantage it offered at the time, and how it was interpreted. This historical perspective can inform the work of statisticians today by encouraging thoughtful consideration of how their work, including proposed alternatives to the p-value, will be perceived and used by scientists. And it can engage students more fully and encourage critical thinking rather than rote applications of formulae. Incorporating history enables students, practitioners, and statisticians to treat the discipline as an ongoing endeavor, crafted by fallible humans, and provides a deeper understanding of the subject and its consequences for science and society.

中文翻译：

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在 p < 0.05 之前到 p < 0.05 之后：使用历史将 p 值和显着性测试情境化

摘要 当统计学家和科学家考虑一个 p < 0.05 以后的世界时，重要的是不要忘记我们是如何走到这一步的。尽管显着性检验和 p 值通常作为规定程序呈现，但它们是通过细化和扩展到其他学科的过程产生的。Ronald A. Fisher 和他的同时代人在 20 世纪初将这些方法正式化，Fisher 1925 年的研究工作者统计方法将这些技术带到了各个学科的实验家。了解这些方法如何从那时起出现、传播和争论，阐明了 p < 0.05 如何成为科学推理的标准、它在当时提供的优势以及如何解释它。这种历史观点可以通过鼓励对科学家如何看待和使用他们的工作（包括提议的 p 值替代方案）进行深思熟虑来为今天的统计学家工作提供信息。它可以更充分地吸引学生并鼓励批判性思维，而不是死记硬背地应用公式。结合历史使学生、从业者和统计学家能够将这门学科视为一项由易犯错误的人精心打造的持续努力，并提供对该学科及其对科学和社会的影响的更深入的理解。