Communication Methods and Measures ( IF 11.4 ) Pub Date : 2018-10-23 , DOI: 10.1080/19312458.2018.1515902 Robert C Hornik 1 , Allyson C Volinsky 2 , Shane Mannis 3 , Laura Gibson 2 , Emily Brennan 4 , Stella J Lee 5 , Andy S L Tan 6
ABSTRACT
Hornik and Woolf (1999) proposed using cross-sectional survey data to prioritize beliefs to address with communication campaign messages. The empirical component of the approach combines evidence of (1) association of beliefs with intentions and (2) current level of beliefs to calculate a “percentage to gain” as the potential promise of a belief. However, the method relies on cross-sectional data; its conclusions are open to challenge. Here, a panel study assesses whether the calculated promise of a belief actually predicts future behavior change. A nationally representative sample of 3,204 U.S. youth and young adults were interviewed twice, six months apart. Sixteen beliefs about the benefits and costs of smoking cigarettes are compared with regard to their percentage to gain (calculated from cross-sectional data) and their ability to account for subsequent cigarette use. A belief’s cross-sectional percentage to gain is substantially associated with its ability to predict subsequent behavior change (r = .53, p < .05).
中文翻译:
验证Hornik&Woolf选择媒体竞选主题的方法:有前途的信念是否可以预测纵向研究中的行为变化?
摘要
Hornik和Woolf(1999)提出使用横断面调查数据来优先考虑信念,以解决沟通活动中的信息。该方法的经验组成部分结合了(1)信念与意图的关联以及(2)信念的当前水平的证据,以计算“获得百分比”作为信念的潜在承诺。但是,该方法依赖于横截面数据。其结论具有挑战性。在这里,一项小组研究评估了所计算出的信念承诺是否实际上预测了未来的行为变化。在全国范围内对3,204名美国青年和年轻人进行抽样调查,相隔六个月进行了两次访谈。比较了关于抽烟的收益和成本的十六种信念,包括其获得的百分比(根据横截面数据计算)以及它们对以后使用香烟的影响的能力。信念的横截面获取百分比与其预测后续行为变化的能力基本相关(r = .53,p <.05)。