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Using problem formulation to clarify the meaning of weight of evidence and biological relevance in environmental risk assessments for genetically modified crops.
GM Crops & Food ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-11 , DOI: 10.1080/21645698.2019.1621615
Alan Raybould 1 , Karen Holt 2 , Ian Kimber 3
Affiliation  

Weight of evidence and biological relevance are important concepts for risk assessment and decision-making over the use of GM crops; however, their meanings are not well defined. We use problem formulation to clarify the definition of these concepts and thereby identify data that are relevant for risk assessment. Problem formulation defines criteria for the acceptability of risk and devises rigorous tests of the hypothesis that the criteria are met. Corroboration or falsification of such hypotheses characterize risk and enable predictable and transparent decisions about whether certain risks from using a particular GM crop are acceptable. Decisions based on a weight of evidence approach use a synthesis of several lines of evidence, whereas a "definitive" approach to risk assessment enables some decisions to be based on the results of a single test. Data are biologically relevant for risk assessment only if they test a hypothesis that is useful for decision-making.

中文翻译:

使用问题表述来阐明转基因作物在环境风险评估中的证据权重和生物学相关性的含义。

证据的重要性和生物学意义是使用转基因作物进行风险评估和决策的重要概念;但是,它们的含义尚不明确。我们使用问题表述来澄清这些概念的定义,从而确定与风险评估相关的数据。问题表述定义了风险可接受性的标准,并对满足标准的假设进行了严格的检验。对这些假说的证实或证伪是风险的特征,并能就使用特定基因改造作物的某些风险是否可以接受做出可预测且透明的决定。基于证据权重方法的决策使用了多个证据线的综合,而“确定性” 风险评估方法可以使某些决策基于单个测试的结果。数据只有在检验对决策有用的假设时,才对风险评估具有生物学意义。
更新日期:2019-11-01
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