The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM_2.5) and coarse (PM_2.5‐10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2‐month Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986–2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust‐attributable all‐cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust‐attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate‐driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34–47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986–2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national‐scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust‐related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature‐related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下美国西南部日益干旱对环境灰尘和公共卫生的影响。

由于气候变化，预计美国西南部将经历日益干旱的情况。我们使用符合环境保护局气候变化影响和风险分析框架的方法来量化对环境灰尘水平和公共健康造成的影响。我们首先证明，美国西南部细尘 (PM _2.5 ) 和粗尘 (PM _2.5‐10 ) 粉尘水平对北美西南部 2 个月标准化降水蒸散指数的变化非常敏感。然后，我们将观测到的敏感性应用于六种气候模型根据中间（代表性浓度路径 4.5，RCP4.5）和高（RCP8.5）温室气体浓度情景预测的降尺度气象输出，从而估计到 2099 年粉尘水平的潜在变化。相对于 1986-2005 年，美国西南部地区到 2080-2099 年，RCP8.5 条件下：(1) 细尘水平可能增加 57%，细尘造成的全因死亡率和住院治疗可能增加 230% 和 360%，分别; (2) 粗粉尘水平可能增加 38%，粗粉尘导致的心血管死亡率和哮喘急诊就诊次数可能分别增加 210% 和 88%；(3) 气候驱动的粉尘浓度变化可占这些健康影响的 34-47%，其余则归因于人口和基线发病率的增加；(4) 健康影响造成的经济损失在 1986-2005 年每年 130 亿美元的基础上每年可能达到 470 亿美元。与使用气候变化影响和风险分析框架对美国其他部门预测的全国范围的气候影响相比，与灰尘相关的死亡率排名第四，仅次于与极端温度相关的死亡率、劳动生产率下降和沿海财产损失。