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Mapping eastern equine encephalitis virus risk for white-tailed deer in Michigan
Applied Geography ( IF 4.732 ) Pub Date : 2015-10-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.09.006
Joni A Downs 1 , Garrett Hyzer 1 , Eric Marion 1 , Zachary J Smith 1 , Patrick Vander Kelen 2 , Thomas R Unnasch 3
Affiliation  

Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is often fatal to humans and horses. Some species including white-tailed deer and passerine birds can survive infection with the EEE virus (EEEV) and develop antibodies that can be detected using laboratory techniques. In this way, collected serum samples from free ranging white-tailed deer can be used to monitor the presence of the virus in ecosystems. This study developed and tested a risk index model designed to predict EEEV activity in white-tailed deer in a three-county area of Michigan. The model evaluates EEEV risk on a continuous scale from 0.0 (no measurable risk) to 1.0 (highest possible risk). High risk habitats are identified as those preferred by white-tailed deer that are also located in close proximity to an abundance of wetlands and lowland forests, which support disease vectors and hosts. The model was developed based on relevant literature and was tested with known locations of infected deer that showed neurological symptoms. The risk index model accurately predicted the known locations, with the mean value for those sites equal to the 94th percentile of values in the study area. The risk map produced by the model could be used refine future EEEV monitoring efforts that use serum samples from free-ranging white-tailed deer to monitor viral activity. Alternatively, it could be used focus educational efforts targeted toward deer hunters that may have elevated risks of infection.

中文翻译:

绘制密歇根州白尾鹿的东部马脑炎病毒风险图

东部马脑炎 (EEE) 是一种蚊媒病毒性疾病,通常对人类和马匹致命。包括白尾鹿和雀鸟在内的一些物种可以在 EEE 病毒 (EEEV) 感染后存活下来,并产生可以使用实验室技术检测到的抗体。这样,从自由放养的白尾鹿身上收集的血清样本可用于监测生态系统中病毒的存在。本研究开发并测试了一个风险指数模型,该模型旨在预测密歇根州三县地区白尾鹿的 EEEV 活动。该模型以从 0.0(无可测量风险)到 1.0(可能的最高风险)的连续尺度评估 EEEV 风险。高风险栖息地被确定为白尾鹿喜欢的栖息地,它们也靠近丰富的湿地和低地森林,支持疾病载体和宿主。该模型是根据相关文献开发的,并在显示神经系统症状的受感染鹿的已知位置进行了测试。风险指数模型准确预测了已知位置,这些站点的平均值等于研究区域值的第 94 个百分位数。该模型生成的风险图可用于改进未来的 EEEV 监测工作,这些工作使用来自自由放养的白尾鹿的血清样本来监测病毒活动。或者,它可以用于针对可能具有较高感染风险的猎鹿者的重点教育工作。风险指数模型准确预测了已知位置,这些站点的平均值等于研究区域值的第 94 个百分位数。该模型生成的风险图可用于改进未来的 EEEV 监测工作,这些工作使用来自自由放养的白尾鹿的血清样本来监测病毒活动。或者,它可以用于针对可能具有较高感染风险的猎鹿者的重点教育工作。风险指数模型准确预测了已知位置,这些站点的平均值等于研究区域值的第 94 个百分位数。该模型生成的风险图可用于改进未来的 EEEV 监测工作,这些工作使用来自自由放养的白尾鹿的血清样本来监测病毒活动。或者,它可以用于针对可能具有较高感染风险的猎鹿者的重点教育工作。
更新日期:2015-10-01
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