Migration-environment models tend to be aspatial within chosen study regions, although associations between temporary outmigration and environmental explanatory variables likely vary across the study space. This research extends current approaches by developing migration models considering spatial non-stationarity and temporal variation - through examination of the migration-environment association at nested geographic scales (i.e. whole-population, village, and subvillage) within a specific study site. Demographic survey data from rural South Africa, combined with indicators of natural resource availability from satellite imagery, are employed in a nested modeling approach that brings out distinct patterns of spatial variation in model associations derived at finer geographic scales. Given recent heightened public and policy concern with the human migratory implications of climate change, we argue that consideration of spatial variability adds important nuance to scientific understanding of the migration-environment association.

中文翻译：

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南非依赖资源的农村社区的临时外迁与自然资源可用性之间时空变化的关联：一个建模框架

迁移-环境模型在选定的研究区域内往往是非空间的，尽管临时外迁和环境解释变量之间的关联在整个研究空间中可能会有所不同。这项研究通过开发考虑空间非平稳性和时间变化的迁移模型扩展了当前的方法——通过检查特定研究地点内嵌套地理尺度（即整个人口、村庄和子村庄）的迁移-环境关联。来自南非农村的人口调查数据，结合来自卫星图像的自然资源可用性指标，被用于嵌套建模方法，在更精细的地理尺度上得出模型关联的不同空间变化模式。