In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.

中文翻译：

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统计模型，用于预测和评估新英格兰河流和河流的时空低流量变异性。

在北半球，夏季的低流量是决定水生生境数量和质量的关键因素。我为新英格兰的河流/河道开发了一组模型，这些模型预测了1985-2015年7月/ 8月的平均流量，这是天气，坡度，不透水百分比，分水岭存储，冰川地质和土壤的函数。在全州范围内，这些模型的表现优于大多数美国地质调查局的夏季流量模型。我开发了第二组模型，这些模型预测夏季流量的年际差异是气温，降水，北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数和滞后NAO差异的函数。差分方程的使用消除了转换的需要，并考虑了滞后1时的序列自相关。依次使用这些模型来估计每月低流量和两个派生流量指标（十分位数[Q10]和最小的3-5年平均流量）的时间序列。第一个度量标准通常用于评估随时间推移对低流量条件的风险，而第二个度量标准与溪鳟的局部灭绝概率增加相关。流量指标显示了1985–2015年新英格兰大部分地区的流量呈上升趋势。但是，将具有平均和极端气候预测值的夏季流量模型应用到马萨诸塞州汤顿河这一正在迅速发展的敏感流域，预计在未来50年内，低流量指标将减少。第一个度量标准通常用于评估随时间推移对低流量条件的风险，而第二个度量标准与溪鳟的局部灭绝概率增加相关。流量指标显示了1985–2015年新英格兰大部分地区的流量呈上升趋势。但是，将具有平均和极端气候预测值的夏季流量模型应用到马萨诸塞州汤顿河这一正在迅速发展的敏感流域，预计在未来50年内，低流量指标将减少。第一个度量标准通常用于评估随时间推移对低流量条件的风险，而第二个度量标准与溪鳟的局部灭绝概率增加相关。流量指标显示了1985–2015年新英格兰大部分地区的流量呈上升趋势。但是，将具有平均和极端气候预测值的夏季流量模型应用到马萨诸塞州汤顿河这一正在迅速发展的敏感流域，预计在未来50年内，低流量指标将减少。