ABSTRACT This article resulted from our participation in the session on the “role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference” at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles of expert judgment in statistics with processes for obtaining input, whether from a Bayesian or frequentist perspective. Topics include the role of subjectivity in the cycle of scientific inference and decisions, followed by a clinical trial and a greenhouse gas emissions case study that illustrate the role of judgments and the importance of basing them on objective information and a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. We close with a call for increased proactivity and involvement of statisticians in study conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, and communication.

中文翻译：

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专家判断在统计推断和循证决策中的作用

摘要 本文源于我们参加了 2017 年 10 月 ASA 统计推断研讨会上关于“专家意见和判断在统计推断中的作用”的会议。无论是从贝叶斯还是频率论的角度来看，我们都对统计中专家判断的作用以及获取输入的过程提出了强有力的统一声明。主题包括主观性在科学推理和决策循环中的作用，随后是临床试验和温室气体排放案例研究，说明判断的作用以及基于客观信息和综合不确定性评估的重要性。最后，我们呼吁统计学家在研究概念化、设计、实施、分析和交流中增加主动性和参与度。