The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for almost a quarter of the global Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The emissions associated with AFOLU activities are projected to increase in the future. The agriculture sector in Thailand accounted for 21.9% of the country’s net GHG emissions in 2013. This study aims to estimate the GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector and mitigation potential at various carbon prices during 2015–2050. This study uses an AFOLU bottom-up (AFOLUB) model to estimate GHG emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and then identifies no-regret options, i.e. countermeasures that are cost-effective without any additional costs. In addition, the study also identifies countermeasure options and mitigation potential at various carbon prices. Results show that emissions from the agriculture sector in the BAU will increase from 45.3 MtCO2eq in 2015 to 63.6 MtCO2eq in 2050, whereas net emission from the AFOLU will be 8.3 MtCO2eq in 2015 and 24.6 MtCO2eq in 2050. No-regret options would reduce emissions by 6.1 and 6.8 MtCO2eq in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The carbon price above $10 per tCO2eq will not be effective to achieve significant additional mitigation/sequestration. In 2050, no-regret options could reduce total AFOLU emissions by 27.5%. Increasing carbon price above $10/tCO2eq does not increase the mitigation potential significantly. Net sequestration (i.e., higher carbon sequestration than GHG emissions) in AFOLU sector would be possible with the carbon price. In 2050, net sequestration would be 1.2 MtCO2eq at carbon price of $5 per tCO2eq, 21.4 at $10 per tCO2eq and 26.8MtCO2eq at $500 per tCO2eq.

中文翻译：

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泰国农业，林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）部门的温室气体减排。

农业，林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）部门占全球温室气体（GHG）排放量的近四分之一。预计与AFOLU活动相关的排放将在未来增加。2013年，泰国的农业部门占该国温室气体净排放量的21.9％。本研究旨在估算2015-2050年各种食品价格下AFOLU部门的温室气体排放量和减排潜力。这项研究使用AFOLU自下而上（AFOLUB）模型来估算照常营业（BAU）情况下的温室气体排放，然后确定无悔选择，即无需任何额外成本即可具有成本效益的对策。此外，研究还确定了各种碳价下的对策选择和减排潜力。结果表明，BAU农业部门的排放量将从2015年的45.3 MtCO2eq增加到2050年的63.6 MtCO2eq，而AFOLU的净排放量将在2015年为8.3 MtCO2eq和2050年为24.6 MtCO2eq。无遗憾的选择将减少排放2030年和2050年的MtCO2当量分别为6.1和6.8。每吨二氧化碳当量10美元以上的碳价将无法有效实现额外的减排/封存。在2050年，无悔选择可以使AFOLU总排放量减少27.5％。将碳价提高到$ 10 / tCO2eq以上不会显着增加减排潜力。随着碳价的上涨，AFOLU部门的净封存（即比GHG排放量高的碳封存）将成为可能。2050年，碳价格为每吨CO2当量5美元时，净封存量将为1.2 MtCO2当量;每吨CO2当量10美元时，净封存量将为21.4 MtCO2当量; 26。