Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach that includes processes governing LSLAs and simulates their interactions with other land systems. LSLAs differ from other land change processes in two ways: (1) their changes affect hundreds to thousands of contiguous hectares at a time, far surpassing other land change processes, e.g., smallholder agriculture, and (2) as policy makers value LSLA as desirable or undesirable, their agency significantly affects LSLA occurrence. To represent these characteristics in a land change model, we allocate LSLAs as multi-cell patches to represent them at scale while preserving detail in the representation of other dynamics. Moreover, LSLA land systems are characterized to respond to an explicit political demand for LSLA effects, in addition to a demand for various agricultural commodities. The model is applied to simulate land change in Laos until 2030, using three contrasting scenarios: (1) a target to quadruple the area of LSLA, (2) a moratorium for new LSLA, and (3) no target for LSLA. Scenarios yield drastically different land change trajectories despite having similar demands for agricultural commodities. A high level of LSLA impedes smallholders’ engagement with rubber or cash crops, while a moratorium on LSLA results in increased smallholder involvement in cash cropping and rubber production. This model goes beyond existing land change models by capturing the heterogeneity of scales of land change processes and the competition between different land users instigated by LSLA.

中文翻译：

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代表老挝人民民主共和国在土地利用变化情景中的大规模土地征用。

农业大规模土地征用（LSLA）是目前土地变更模型未涵盖的一个过程。我们提出了一种新颖的土地变化建模方法，其中包括控制LSLA的流程并模拟了它们与其他土地系统的相互作用。LSLA与其他土地变更过程有两个方面的区别：（1）它们的改变一次影响数百至数千公顷的连续公顷，远远超过其他土地变更过程，例如小农农业，（2）政策制定者认为LSLA是可取的或不受欢迎的是，他们的代理机构会严重影响LSLA的发生。为了在土地变化模型中表示这些特征，我们将LSLA分配为多单元斑块，以按比例表示它们，同时保留其他动态表示中的细节。此外，LSLA土地系统的特征是，除了对各种农业商品的需求外，还可以响应对LSLA效果的明确政治要求。该模型用于模拟到2030年老挝的土地变化，使用了三种截然不同的方案：（1）将LSLA面积扩大四倍的目标；（2）暂停新LSLA的目标；（3）没有LSLA的目标。尽管对农业商品的需求相似，但情况却产生了截然不同的土地变化轨迹。LSLA的高水平阻碍了小农参与橡胶或经济作物的活动，而暂停LSLA导致小农更多地参与经济作物和橡胶生产。