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Boundedly rational expected utility theory.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty ( IF 3.977 ) Pub Date : 2018-12-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s11166-018-9293-3
Daniel Navarro-Martinez 1, 2 , Graham Loomes 3 , Andrea Isoni 3, 4 , David Butler 5 , Larbi Alaoui 1, 2
Affiliation  

We build a satisficing model of choice under risk which embeds Expected Utility Theory (EUT) into a boundedly rational deliberation process. The decision maker accumulates evidence for and against alternative options by repeatedly sampling from her underlying set of EU preferences until the evidence favouring one option satisfies her desired level of confidence. Despite its EUT core, the model produces patterns of behaviour that violate standard EUT axioms, while at the same time capturing systematic relationships between choice probabilities, response times and confidence judgments, which are beyond the scope of theories that do not take deliberation into account.

中文翻译:

有限理性预期效用理论。

我们建立了一个满足风险的选择满意模型,该模型将预期效用理论(EUT)嵌入到有限理性的审议过程中。决策者通过反复从其基本的欧盟优惠中抽样来积累支持和反对备选方案的证据,直到赞成一个备选方案的证据满足了她期望的置信度。尽管具有EUT核心,该模型仍会产生违反标准EUT公理的行为模式,同时捕获选择概率,响应时间和置信度判断之间的系统关系,这超出了未考虑的理论范围。
更新日期:2018-12-28
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