Reliable forecasts of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit (GEO) are important for the mitigation of their hazardous effects on spacecraft at GEO. For a number of years the Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA has provided advanced online forecasts of the fluence of electrons with energy >2 MeV at GEO using the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM). The REFM forecasts are based on real‐time solar wind speed observations at L1. The high reliability of this forecasting tool serves as a benchmark for the assessment of other forecasting tools. Since 2012 the Sheffield SNB³GEO model has been operating online, providing a 24 h ahead forecast of the same fluxes. In addition to solar wind speed, the SNB³GEO forecasts use solar wind density and interplanetary magnetic field B_z observations at L1.The period of joint operation of both of these forecasts has been used to compare their accuracy. Daily averaged measurements of electron fluxes by GOES 13 have been used to estimate the prediction efficiency of both forecasting tools. To assess the reliability of both models to forecast infrequent events of very high fluxes, the Heidke skill score was employed. The results obtained indicate that SNB³GEO provides a more accurate 1 day ahead forecast when compared to REFM. It is shown that the correction methodology utilized by REFM potentially can improve the SNB³GEO forecast.

中文翻译：

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NOAA REFM和SNB3GEO工具对GEO的高能电子通量预测的比较分析。

对地静止轨道（GEO）相对论电子的可靠预测对于减轻它们对GEO航天器的有害影响至关重要。多年来，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的太空天气预测中心已使用相对论电子预报模型（REFM）在GEO上提供了能量大于2 MeV的电子通量的高级在线预报。REFM预测基于L1的实时太阳风速观测。此预测工具的高可靠性可作为评估其他预测工具的基准。自2012年以来，Sheffield SNB ³ GEO模型已在线运行，可以提前24小时预测相同的通量。除太阳风速外，SNB ³ GEO预报还使用太阳风密度和行星际磁场L1的B _z观测值。这两个预测的联合运行时间已用于比较其准确性。GOES 13对电子通量的每日平均测量值已用于估算两种预报工具的预报效率。为了评估这两种模型预测高通量偶发事件的可靠性，采用了Heidke技能评分。所得结果表明，与REFM相比，SNB ³ GEO提供了更准确的1天提前预报。结果表明，REFM所采用的校正方法可能会改善SNB ³ GEO预报。