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Bayesian Reconstruction of Two-Sex Populations by Age: Estimating Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios of Mortality.
The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2015-11-28 , DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12104
Mark C Wheldon 1 , Adrian E Raftery 2 , Samuel J Clark 2 , Patrick Gerland 3
Affiliation  

The original version of Bayesian reconstruction, a method for estimating age-specific fertility, mortality, migration and population counts of the recent past with uncertainty, produced estimates for female-only populations. Here we show how two-sex populations can be similarly reconstructed and probabilistic estimates of various sex ratio quantities obtained. We demonstrate the method by reconstructing the populations of India from 1971 to 2001, Thailand from 1960 to 2000, and Laos from 1985 to 2005. We found evidence that in India, sex ratio at birth exceeded its conventional upper limit of 1.06, and, further, increased over the period of study, with posterior probability above 0.9. In addition, almost uniquely, we found evidence that life expectancy at birth (e0) was lower for females than for males in India (posterior probability for 1971-1976 equal to 0.79), although there was strong evidence for a narrowing of the gap through to 2001. In both Thailand and Laos, we found strong evidence for the more usual result that e0 was greater for females and, in Thailand, that the difference increased over the period of study.

中文翻译:

贝叶斯重建的两性人口年龄:估计出生时的性别比和死亡率的性别比。

贝叶斯重建的原始版本是一种用于估计最近一段时间的特定年龄的生育力,死亡率,移徙和人口数量的方法,具有不确定性,该方法仅针对女性人口。在这里,我们展示了如何可以类似地重建两性人口并获得各种性别比例数量的概率估计。我们通过重建1971年至2001年的印度,1960年至2000年的泰国以及1985年至2005年的老挝的人口来证明该方法。我们发现了证据,在印度,出生时的性别比超过了其传统的上限1.06,并且进一步在研究期间有所增加,后验概率高于0.9。另外,几乎唯一
更新日期:2019-11-01
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