We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.

中文翻译：

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1970-2011年，南美气候变率和省际迁移。

我们研究了气候变化对南美人口迁移的影响。我们的分析基于在八个南美国家进行的25次普查中对15-40岁的成年人进行的超过2100万次观察。为了解决先前研究中与方法多样性相关的局限性，我们在所有国家/地区采用了通用的分析方法以及对移民和气候的统一定义。我们估算了气候变化对总体移民的影响，并调查了性别，年龄，社会经济群体，国家之间以及历史气候条件之间的异质性。我们还按照目的地的农村/城市状态来分类迁移。我们发现，相对于每月的降雨冲击和多年以来气候的逐渐变化，每月的温度冲击对迁移的影响最一致。我们还发现跨人口群体和国家异质性的证据。根据目的地的乡村/城市状况对移民进行分类的分析表明，与气候有关的省际移民大部分是针对城市地区的。总体而言，我们的结果强调了环境与移民之间联系的复杂性，并挑战了简单的叙述方式，这些叙述设想了对气候变化的线性和整体性迁徙反应。根据目的地的乡村/城市状况对移民进行分类的分析表明，与气候有关的省际移民大部分是针对城市地区的。总体而言，我们的结果强调了环境与移民之间联系的复杂性，并挑战了简单的叙述方式，这些叙述设想了对气候变化的线性和整体性迁徙反应。按目的地的乡村/城市状况对移民进行分类的分析表明，与气候有关的省际移民大部分是针对城市地区的。总体而言，我们的结果强调了环境与移民之间联系的复杂性，并挑战了简单的叙述方式，这些叙述设想了对气候变化的线性和整体性迁徙反应。