Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks - the ties connecting an origin and destination - may operate as "migration corridors" with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying, social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place.

中文翻译：

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放大或抑制：墨西哥农村地区的社交网络和气候变化与移民协会。

气候增加的速率可能对派遣国和目的地国而言在经济和国家层面都令人担忧。有人争辩说，社交网络-连接起点和终点的纽带-可能充当“移民走廊”，有可能极大地促进与气候变化有关的移民。这项研究调查了家庭和社区层面的社交网络是否放大或抑制了气候变化对从墨西哥农村地区国际移民的影响。根据墨西哥全国214个气象站的每日温度和降水数据，得出了一套新颖的15种气候变化指数。利用地统计插值技术，气候变化值与68个乡村城市相关，墨西哥人口迁移项目提供了这些人口统计数据和详细的移民历史。使用多级离散事件历史模型研究了1986年至1999年之间气候变化对国际移民的影响。在家庭层面，通过比较第一步和最后一步来近似估算社会网络的影响。通过第一步，家庭建立了内部社会资本。在社区一级，通过互动来探讨社会资本的影响，并衡量具有移民经验的成年人的比例。结果表明，社会资本可能会抑制迁移对气候触发因素的敏感性，而不是放大，