"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns.... We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent.... We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."

中文翻译：

---

婚姻选择和死亡率的年龄模式：数学​​调查

“在本文中，我们使用模拟模型来证明婚姻选择过程与由此产生的 RMR [相对死亡率] 之间关系的复杂性。特别是，我们表明，仅凭婚姻选择就可以产生一个相对死亡率仍然很大且在远超出婚姻跨度的年龄相对恒定......我们的总体目标......是确定相对死亡率的年龄模式范围，理论上，这可能是基于健康特征的婚姻选择。我们还评估婚姻选择机制的变化对由此产生的死亡率模式的影响……我们开发并应用了婚姻选择过程的几个简单数学模型。为了区分婚姻选择和婚姻保护的潜在后果，我们考虑不存在因果关系的假设人群......我们首先考虑一个极其简单的婚姻选择过程，然后根据日本最近的死亡率和结婚率探索更现实的选择模型。”