AIM: Our objective was to identify the distribution of the endangered golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) in fragmented oak-juniper woodlands by applying a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model to better assist decision-makers in identifying suitable habitat across the species breeding range on which conservation or mitigation activities can be focused and thus prioritize management and conservation planning. LOCATION: Texas, USA. METHODS: We used repeated double-observer detection/non-detection surveys of randomly selected (n = 287) patches of potential habitat to evaluate warbler patch-scale presence across the species breeding range. We used a geoadditive semiparametric occupancy model with remotely sensed habitat metrics (patch size and landscape composition) to predict patch-scale occupancy of golden-cheeked warblers in the fragmented oak-juniper woodlands of central Texas, USA. RESULTS: Our spatially explicit model indicated that golden-cheeked warbler patch occupancy declined from south to north within the breeding range concomitant with reductions in the availability of large habitat patches. We found that 59% of woodland patches, primarily in the northern and central portions of the warbler's range, were predicted to have occupancy probabilities ≤0.10 with only 3% of patches predicted to have occupancy probabilities >0.90. Our model exhibited high prediction accuracy (area under curve = 0.91) when validated using independently collected warbler occurrence data. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a distinct spatial occurrence gradient for golden-cheeked warblers as well as a relationship between two measurable landscape characteristics. Because habitat-occupancy relationships were key drivers of our model, our results can be used to identify potential areas where conservation actions supporting habitat mitigation can occur and identify areas where conservation of future potential habitat is possible. Additionally, our results can be used to focus resources on maintenance and creation of patches that are more likely to harbour viable local warbler populations.

中文翻译：

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预测濒危物种在大范围范围内破碎景观中的斑块占有率：美国莺的例子

目的：我们的目标是通过应用地理加成半参数占用模型来确定濒临灭绝的金颊莺（Setophaga chrysoparia）在破碎的橡树杜松林地中的分布，以更好地帮助决策者在物种繁殖范围内确定合适的栖息地。保护或缓解活动可以有重点，从而优先考虑管理和保护规划。地点：美国德克萨斯州。方法：我们对随机选择的（n = 287）潜在栖息地斑块使用重复的双观察者检测/非检测调查来评估整个物种繁殖范围内莺斑块规模的存在。我们使用具有遥感栖息地指标（斑块大小和景观组成）的地理加成半参数占用模型来预测美国德克萨斯州中部破碎的橡树杜松林地中金颊莺的斑块规模占用。结果：我们的空间显性模型表明，随着大栖息地斑块可用性的减少，金颊莺斑块的占有率在繁殖范围内从南到北下降。我们发现 59% 的林地斑块，主要是在莺分布范围的北部和中部，预计占用概率≤0.10，只有 3% 的斑块预测占用概率 >0.90。当使用独立收集的莺发生数据进行验证时，我们的模型表现出很高的预测准确性（曲线下面积 = 0.91）。主要结论：我们已经确定了金颊莺的独特空间发生梯度以及两个可测量的景观特征之间的关系。由于栖息地占用关系是我们模型的关键驱动因素，因此我们的结果可用于确定可以采取支持栖息地缓解的保护行动的潜在区域，并确定可以保护未来潜在栖息地的区域。此外，我们的结果可用于将资源集中在维护和创建更可能拥有可行的当地莺种群的补丁上。我们的结果可用于确定可以采取支持栖息地缓解的保护行动的潜在区域，并确定可以保护未来潜在栖息地的区域。此外，我们的结果可用于将资源集中在维护和创建更可能拥有可行的当地莺种群的补丁上。我们的结果可用于确定可以采取支持栖息地缓解的保护行动的潜在区域，并确定可以保护未来潜在栖息地的区域。此外，我们的结果可用于将资源集中在维护和创建更可能拥有可行的当地莺种群的补丁上。