Intensification of animal production can be an important factor in the emergence of infectious diseases because changes in production structure influence disease transmission patterns. In 2004 and 2005, Thailand was subject to two highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic waves and large surveys were conducted of the poultry sector, providing detailed spatial data on various poultry types. This study analysed these data with the aim of establishing the distributions of extensive and intensive poultry farms, based on the number of birds per holder. Once poultry data were disaggregated into these two production systems, they were analysed in relation to anthropogenic factors using simultaneous autoregressive models. Intensive chicken production was clustered around the capital city of Bangkok and close to the main consumption and export centres. Intensively-raised ducks, mainly free-grazing, showed a distinct pattern with the highest densities distributed in a large area located in the floodplain of the Chao Phraya River. Accessibility to Bangkok, the percentage of irrigated areas and human population density were the most important predictors explaining the geographical distribution of intensively-raised poultry. The distribution of extensive poultry showed a higher predictability. Extensive poultry farms were distributed more homogeneously across the country and their distribution was best predicted by human population density.

中文翻译：

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泰国集约化家禽养殖分布预测

动物生产的集约化可能是传染病出现的一个重要因素，因为生产结构的变化会影响疾病的传播模式。2004 年和 2005 年，泰国遭受了两次高致病性禽流感流行浪潮，并对家禽部门进行了大规模调查，提供了各种家禽类型的详细空间数据。本研究分析了这些数据，目的是根据每个持有人的家禽数量确定粗放和集约化家禽养殖场的分布。一旦家禽数据被分解到这两个生产系统中，就使用同步自回归模型分析它们与人为因素的关系。集约化鸡肉生产集中在首都曼谷附近，靠近主要消费和出口中心。以自由放牧为主的集约养鸭呈现出独特的格局，分布在湄南河泛滥平原的大片区域内密度最高。曼谷的可达性、灌溉面积的百分比和人口密度是解释集约化饲养家禽地理分布的最重要预测因素。粗放家禽的分布表现出更高的可预测性。广泛的家禽养殖场在全国范围内分布更均匀，其分布最好通过人口密度进行预测。灌溉面积的百分比和人口密度是解释集约化饲养家禽地理分布的最重要的预测因素。粗放家禽的分布表现出更高的可预测性。广泛的家禽养殖场在全国范围内分布更均匀，其分布最好通过人口密度进行预测。灌溉面积的百分比和人口密度是解释集约化饲养家禽地理分布的最重要的预测因素。粗放家禽的分布显示出更高的可预测性。广泛的家禽养殖场在全国范围内分布更均匀，其分布最好通过人口密度进行预测。