Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.

中文翻译：

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在洪水风险管理中应用适应途径的经验教训以及进一步发展该方法的挑战。

在世界范围内，洪水造成的损失有所增加。各国政府正在寻找有效的方法来保护生命、建筑物和基础设施。与此同时，似乎还存在巨大的投资缺口——为遏制损失增加而必须采取的措施与实际采取的措施之间存在巨大差异。参与气候适应的决策者面临着根本性（所谓的深度）不确定性。随着时间的推移，科学界已经开发出多种不同的方法来处理这些不确定性。其中一种方法，即适应路径，作为制定和宣传气候适应的一种方式正在受到越来越多的关注。但研究表明，“很少有工作来评估适应途径的当前使用及其对从业者和决策者的效用”（Lin 等人，2017 年，第 387 页）。在这篇论文中，作者作为参与世界上最大的洪水风险管理方法的两个实际应用的行动研究人员和实践者，旨在为填补这一空白做出贡献。对英国和荷兰在洪水风险管理长期规划方面的经验分析表明，适应路径方法可以有效地推动决策过程的进展，直至长期计划的最终批准，并有助于提高认识关于不确定性。它有助于为保持长期选择开放提供政治支持，并激励决策者修改计划以更好地适应未来的情况。在实施这些计划时，仍然存在一些重大挑战有待解决，其中包括：在自然变化较大的情况下及时发现临界点，纳入为转向转型战略做好准备的措施，以及随着国家政策从蓝图规划转向适应性计划，区域和地方当局、非政府组织和私营部门保留对气候适应的承诺。在提供这些反馈时，作者希望激励科学界应对这些挑战。