当前位置: X-MOL 学术Biostatistics › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Causal inference in continuous time: an example on prostate cancer therapy.
Biostatistics ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxy036
Pål Christie Ryalen 1 , Mats Julius Stensrud 1, 2 , Sophie Fosså 3, 4, 5 , Kjetil Røysland 1
Affiliation  

In marginal structural models (MSMs), time is traditionally treated as a discrete parameter. In survival analysis on the other hand, we study processes that develop in continuous time. Therefore, Røysland (2011. A martingale approach to continuous-time marginal structural models. Bernoulli 17, 895-915) developed the continuous-time MSMs, along with continuous-time weights. The continuous-time weights are conceptually similar to the inverse probability weights that are used in discrete time MSMs. Here, we demonstrate that continuous-time MSMs may be used in practice. First, we briefly describe the causal model assumptions using counting process notation, and we suggest how causal effect estimates can be derived by calculating continuous-time weights. Then, we describe how additive hazard models can be used to find such effect estimates. Finally, we apply this strategy to compare medium to long-term differences between the two prostate cancer treatments radical prostatectomy and radiation therapy, using data from the Norwegian Cancer Registry. In contrast to the results of a naive analysis, we find that the marginal cumulative incidence of treatment failure is similar between the strategies, accounting for the competing risk of other death.

中文翻译:

连续时间的因果推断:以前列腺癌治疗为例。

在边际结构模型(MSM)中,传统上将时间视为离散参数。另一方面,在生存分析中,我们研究持续发展的过程。因此,Røysland(2011.连续时间边际结构模型的mar方法。Bernoulli17,895-915)开发了连续时间MSM,以及连续时间权重。连续时间权重在概念上类似于离散时间MSM中使用的逆概率权重。在这里,我们证明了连续时间MSM可以在实践中使用。首先,我们使用计数过程符号简要描述因果模型假设,并建议如何通过计算连续时间权重得出因果效应估计。然后,我们描述如何使用加性危害模型来找到这种影响估计。最后,我们使用这项策略来比较两种前列腺癌根治性前列腺切除术和放射治疗之间的中长期差异,并使用来自挪威癌症注册中心的数据。与幼稚分析的结果相反,我们发现策略之间的治疗失败的边际累积发生率相似,这说明了其他死亡的竞争风险。
更新日期:2019-11-01
down
wechat
bug