The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics of several management scenarios within the context of simulated twenty-first century climate change. Simulations of all scenarios with land use, including restoration, indicated net C losses over the twenty-first century ranging from 10 to 100 % of pre-disturbance values. Fire can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. Simulated 100 years of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) cultivation with an initial prescribed burn resulted in 2400–3000 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹ total emissions. Simulated restoration following one 25-year oil palm rotation reduced total emissions to 440–1200 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹, depending on climate. These results suggest that even under a very optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one third of the peat C lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered in the following 75 years if the site is restored. Emissions from a simulated land degradation scenario were most sensitive to climate, with total emissions ranging from 230 to 10,600 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹ over 100 years for the wettest and driest dry season scenarios, respectively. The large difference was driven by increased fire probability. Therefore, peat fire suppression is an effective management tool to maintain tropical peatland C stocks in the near term and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts. In total, we estimate emissions from current cleared peatlands and peatlands converted to oil palm in Southeast Asia to be 8.7 Gt CO₂ over 100 years with a moderate twenty-first century climate. These emissions could be minimized by effective fire suppression and hydrological restoration.

中文翻译：

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土地利用，恢复和气候变化对二十一世纪热带泥炭碳储量的影响：对减缓气候变化的影响。

随着东南亚泥炭地的砍伐，排水和焚烧速度很高，热带泥炭地的气候减缓潜力已引起越来越多的关注，从而导致全球向大气中排放大量二氧化碳（CO ₂）。我们使用了基于过程的动态热带泥炭地模型，以在模拟的二十一世纪气候变化的背景下探索几种管理方案的泥炭碳（C）动态。对包括恢复在内的所有土地利用情景的模拟表明，在二十一世纪中，净碳损失为扰动前值的10％至100％。火灾可能是主要的碳损失途径，尤其是在我们测试的较干燥的气候情况下。模拟了100年的油棕树（Elaeis guineensis）以最初的规定燃烧进行耕种会导致2400–3000 Mg CO ₂  ha ^-1总排放量。油棕旋转25年后进行的模拟恢复将总排放降低至440-1200 Mg CO ₂  ha ^-1，具体取决于气候。这些结果表明，即使在非常乐观的水文和森林恢复情景以及最湿润的气候条件下，如果在25年的油棕种植过程中，从大气中损失25年的泥炭C仍能恢复到大气中，那么只有大约三分之一的泥炭C可以被恢复。网站已还原。模拟土地退化情景下的排放对气候最敏感，总排放范围为230至10,600 Mg CO ₂  ha ^-1最潮湿和最干旱的干燥季节情景分别超过100年。较大的差异是由增加的开火概率造成的。因此，抑制泥炭火灾是在短期内保持热带泥炭地C储量的有效管理工具，应该是缓解气候变化工作的高度优先事项。总体而言，我们估计在20世纪中叶气候温和的100年中，东南亚现有的已清除泥炭地和转化为油棕的泥炭地的排放量为8.7 Gt CO ₂。通过有效的灭火和水文恢复，可以将这些排放降至最低。