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From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2016-03-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s11027-016-9707-y
Götz Schroth 1 , Peter Läderach 2 , Armando Isaac Martinez-Valle 2 , Christian Bunn 2, 3
Affiliation  

The production of tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.), the countries and communities engaged in it, and the industries dependent on these commodities, are vulnerable to climate change. This is especially so where a large percentage of the global supply is grown in a single geographical region. Fortunately, there is often considerable spatial heterogeneity in the vulnerability to climate change within affected regions, implying that local production losses could be compensated through intensification and expansion of production elsewhere. However, this requires that site-level actions are integrated into a regional approach to climate change adaptation. We discuss here such a regional approach for cocoa in West Africa, where 70 % of global cocoa supply originates. On the basis of a statistical model of relative climatic suitability calibrated on West African cocoa farming areas and average climate projections for the 2030s and 2050s of, respectively, 15 and 19 Global Circulation Models, we divide the region into three adaptation zones: (i) a little affected zone permitting intensification and/or expansion of cocoa farming; (ii) a moderately affected zone requiring diversification and agronomic adjustments of farming practices; and (iii) a severely affected zone with need for progressive crop change. We argue that for tropical agricultural commodities, larger-scale adaptation planning that attempts to balance production trends across countries and regions could help reduce negative impacts of climate change on regional economies and global commodity supplies, despite the institutional challenges that this integration may pose.

中文翻译:

从站点级别到热带商品的区域适应计划:西非可可。

热带农业商品的生产,例如可可(Theobroma cacao)和咖啡(Coffeaspp。),参与其中的国家和社区以及依赖于这些商品的行业容易受到气候变化的影响。尤其是在单个地理区域中增长了全球总供应量的情况下。幸运的是,受影响区域内气候变化的脆弱性通常存在很大的空间异质性,这意味着可以通过集约化生产和扩大其他地方的生产来弥补当地的生产损失。但是,这要求将站点级的行动纳入适应气候变化的区域方法。我们在这里讨论西非的这种区域可可方式,全球可可供应的70%来自西非。根据在西非可可豆种植区校准的相对气候适宜性统计模型以及分别在15和19个全球环流模型中对2030和2050年代的平均气候预测,我们将该地区划分为三个适应区:(i)受影响较小的地区,允许加强和/或扩大可可种植;(ii)受灾程度中等的地区,需要对耕作方式进行多样化和农艺调整;(iii)受灾严重的地区,需要进行渐进式的农作物更换。我们认为,对于热带农业商品而言,旨在平衡国家和地区之间的生产趋势的大规模适应计划可能有助于减少气候变化对区域经济和全球商品供应的负面影响,
更新日期:2016-03-10
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