AbstractEven if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO‐CORDEX) was used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South‐Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha−1 in the north, through +25 and +20 Gcal ha−1 in Western and Eastern Europe, respectively, to +10 Gcal ha−1 in the south if soil degradation and heat impacts are not accounted for. Elevated CO2 and increased temperature are the dominant drivers of the simulated yield changes in high‐input agricultural systems. The growth stimulus due to elevated CO2 may offset potentially negative yield impacts of temperature increase by +2°C in most of Europe. Soil degradation causes a calorie vulnerability ranging from 0 to 50 Gcal ha−1 due to insufficient compensation for nutrient depletion and this might undermine climate benefits in many regions, if not prevented by adaptation measures, especially in Eastern and North‐Eastern Europe. Uncertainties due to future potentials for crop intensification are about 2–50 times higher than climate change impacts.

中文翻译：

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+2°C 气候变化和土壤退化对欧洲农作物热量供应的影响和不确定性

摘要即使全球变暖保持在+2°C以下，欧洲农业也将受到重大影响。土壤退化可能会大大放大这些影响，从而进一步阻碍作物生产。我们使用作物模型量化了生物物理后果，并涵盖了 +2°C 变暖对 10 种主​​要作物的热量供应的不确定性以及欧洲土壤退化的脆弱性。为此目的，使用了环境政策综合气候（EPIC）模型以及协调区域降尺度实验（EURO-CORDEX）欧洲分支的区域气候预测。据估计，除南欧和东南欧的一些地区外，欧盟成员国的卡路里产量将出现强劲的正变化。平均影响范围为 +30 Gcal ha−1在北部，通过+25和+20 Gcal ha−1西欧和东欧分别增加 10 Gcal ha−1如果不考虑土壤退化和热影响，在南方。二氧化碳浓度升高2温度升高是高投入农业系统模拟产量变化的主要驱动因素。二氧化碳浓度升高刺激生长2可能会抵消欧洲大部分地区温度升高+2°C 带来的潜在负面产量影响。土壤退化导致热量脆弱性从 0 到 50 Gcal ha−1由于对养分消耗的补偿不足，如果不采取适应措施，这可能会损害许多地区的气候效益，特别是在东欧和东北欧。未来作物集约化潜力带来的不确定性比气候变化影响高出约 2-50 倍。