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Using Synthetic Controls to Evaluate the Effect of Unique Interventions: The Case of Say Yes to Education.
Evaluation Review ( IF 2.121 ) Pub Date : 2017-11-21 , DOI: 10.1177/0193841x17742233
Robert Bifulco 1 , Ross Rubenstein 2 , Hosung Sohn 3
Affiliation  

Background: “Place-based” scholarships seek to improve student outcomes in urban school districts and promote urban revitalization in economically challenged cities. Say Yes to Education is a unique district-wide school reform effort adopted in Syracuse, NY, in 2008. It includes full-tuition scholarships for public and private universities, coupled with extensive wraparound support services in schools. Objectives: This study uses synthetic control methods to evaluate the effect of Say Yes on district enrollment and graduation rates. It also introduces the synthetic control method and provides guidance for its use in evaluating single-site interventions. Method: Combining school district-level data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Common Core of Data and New York State School Report Cards, this article uses synthetic control methods to construct a synthetic comparison district to estimate counterfactual enrollment and graduation trends for Syracuse. Results: We find that Say Yes to Education was associated with enrollment increases in the Syracuse City School District, a district that had previously experienced decades of sustained enrollment declines. We do not find consistent evidence of changes in graduation rates following adoption of the program. Conclusions: Graduation rate analyses demonstrate that estimates of treatment effects can be sensitive to choices that the researcher has to make in applying synthetic control methods, particularly when pretreatment outcome measures appear to have considerable amounts of noise.

中文翻译:

使用综合控制评估独特干预的效果:对教育说是的情况。

背景:“地方性”奖学金旨在改善城市学区的学生成绩,并促进经济困难城市的城市复兴。“对教育说是”是2008年在纽约州锡拉库扎采用的一项独特的地区性学校改革措施。它包括为公立和私立大学提供全额学费奖学金,以及在学校中提供广泛的全面支持服务。目的:本研究使用综合控制方法评估“同意”对地区入学率和毕业率的影响。它还介绍了综合控制方法,并为评估单点干预措施的使用提供了指导。方法:将来自国家教育统计中心“数据的共同核心”的学区级数据与纽约州学校成绩单相结合,本文使用综合控制方法来构建综合比较区,以估算锡拉丘兹的反事实入学率和毕业趋势。结果:我们发现锡拉丘兹市学区的入学率与入学率增加有关,锡拉丘兹市学区以前曾经历了数十年的持续入学率下降。我们没有找到通过该计划后毕业率变化的一致证据。结论:毕业率分析表明,对治疗效果的评估可能对研究人员在应用综合控制方法时必须做出的选择敏感,特别是当预处理结果措施似乎产生大量噪声时。
更新日期:2017-11-21
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