Climate forecasts predict an increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires. Associations between health outcomes and population exposure to smoke from Washington 2012 wildfires were compared using surface monitors, chemical‐weather models, and a novel method blending three exposure information sources. The association between smoke particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5) and cardiopulmonary hospital admissions occurring in Washington from 1 July to 31 October 2012 was evaluated using a time‐stratified case‐crossover design. Hospital admissions aggregated by ZIP code were linked with population‐weighted daily average concentrations of smoke PM_2.5 estimated using three distinct methods: a simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) model, a kriged interpolation of PM_2.5 measurements from surface monitors, and a geographically weighted ridge regression (GWR) that blended inputs from WRF‐Chem, satellite observations of aerosol optical depth, and kriged PM_2.5. A 10 μg/m³ increase in GWR smoke PM_2.5 was associated with an 8% increased risk in asthma‐related hospital admissions (odds ratio (OR): 1.076, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.019–1.136); other smoke estimation methods yielded similar results. However, point estimates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) differed by smoke PM_2.5 exposure method: a 10 μg/m³ increase using GWR was significantly associated with increased risk of COPD (OR: 1.084, 95%CI: 1.026–1.145) and not significant using WRF‐Chem (OR: 0.986, 95%CI: 0.931–1.045). The magnitude (OR) and uncertainty (95%CI) of associations between smoke PM_2.5 and hospital admissions were dependent on estimation method used and outcome evaluated. Choice of smoke exposure estimation method used can impact the overall conclusion of the study.

中文翻译：

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野火烟雾估计方法及其与心肺相关医院入院的关联性比较。

气候预测预测野火的频率和强度会增加。使用表面监测器，化学天气模型以及融合了三种暴露信息源的新颖方法，比较了健康结果与人口对华盛顿2012年野火烟雾暴露的影响。使用时间分层的病例交叉设计评估了直径≤2.5μm（PM _2.5）的烟雾颗粒物与2012年7月1日至10月31日在华盛顿发生的心肺医院入院之间的关联。邮政编码汇总的医院住院人数与人群加权的PM _2.5每日平均浓度有关使用三种不同的方法进行估算：使用天气研究和化学预报（WRF-Chem）模型进行模拟，对来自地面监测仪的PM _2.5测量值进行kriged插值，以及将来自WRF-Chem的输入进行混合的地理加权岭回归（GWR） ，对气溶胶光学深度的卫星观测，以及kriged PM _2.5。GWR烟雾PM _2.5升高10μg/ m ³，与哮喘相关的住院率增加8％（几率（OR）：1.076，95％置信区间（CI）：1.019-1.136）；其他烟雾估计方法也得出了类似的结果。但是，慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）的点估计值因烟雾PM _2.5而异暴露方法：使用GWR增加10μg/ m ³与COPD风险增加显着相关（OR：1.084，95％CI：1.026–1.145），而使用WRF-Chem（OR：0.986，95％CI：0.931）并不显着–1.045）。烟气PM _2.5与入院之间关联的大小（OR）和不确定性（95％CI）取决于所使用的估计方法和评估的结果。选择使用的烟雾暴露估计方法可能会影响研究的总体结论。