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Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis
Aerobiologia ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2016-03-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s10453-016-9435-5
J P G van Leuken 1 , A N Swart 2 , P Droogers 3 , A van Pul 4 , D Heederik 5 , A H Havelaar 6
Affiliation  

The most recent IPCC report presented further scientific evidence for global climate change in the twenty-first century. Important secondary effects of climate change include those on water resource availability, agricultural yields, urban healthy living, biodiversity, ecosystems, food security, and public health. The aim of this explorative study was to determine the range of expected airborne pathogen concentrations during a single outbreak or release in a future climate compared to a historical climatic period (1981–2010). We used five climate scenarios for the periods 2016–2045 and 2036–2065 defined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and two conversion tools to create hourly future meteorological data sets. We modelled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations by means of an atmospheric dispersion model and compared these data to historical (1981–2010) modelled concentrations. Our results showed that modelled concentrations were modified several percentage points on average as a result of climate change. On average, concentrations were reduced in four out of five scenarios. Wind speed and global radiation were of critical importance, which determine horizontal and vertical dilution. Modelled concentrations decreased on average, but large positive and negative hourly averaged effects were calculated (from −67 to +639 %). This explorative study shows that further research should include pathogen inactivation and more detailed probability functions on precipitation, snow, and large-scale circulation.

中文翻译:

气候变化对空气中致病生物气溶胶浓度的影响:情景分析

最近的 IPCC 报告为 21 世纪的全球气候变化提供了进一步的科学证据。气候变化的重要次要影响包括对水资源可用性、农业产量、城市健康生活、生物多样性、生态系统、粮食安全和公共卫生的影响。这项探索性研究的目的是确定与历史气候时期(1981-2010 年)相比,在未来气候中单次爆发或释放期间预期的空气传播病原体浓度范围。我们使用荷兰皇家气象研究所定义的 2016-2045 年和 2036-2065 年期间的五种气候情景和两种转换工具来创建每小时的未来气象数据集。我们通过大气扩散模型模拟了季节平均的空气传播病原体浓度,并将这些数据与历史(1981-2010)模拟浓度进行了比较。我们的结果表明,由于气候变化,模拟浓度平均修改了几个百分点。平均而言,在五种情况中的四种情况下,浓度都降低了。风速和全球辐射至关重要,它们决定了水平和垂直稀释。模拟浓度平均下降,但计算出大的正负每小时平均效应(从 -67 到 +639 %)。这项探索性研究表明,进一步的研究应包括病原体灭活和更详细的降水、降雪和大尺度环流的概率函数。
更新日期:2016-03-24
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