There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world, which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. This overview article examines whether floods have changed in the past and explores the driving processes of such changes in the atmosphere, the catchments and the river system based on examples from Europe. Methods are reviewed for assessing whether floods may increase in the future. Accounting for feedbacks within the human‐water system is important when assessing flood changes over lead times of decades or centuries. It is argued that an integrated flood risk management approach is needed for dealing with future flood risk with a focus on reducing the vulnerability of the societal system. WIREs Water 2015, 2:329–344. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079

中文翻译：

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洪水泛滥：小说还是现实？

在过去的几年中，世界范围内发生了许多令人惊讶的重大洪灾，这表明洪灾可能会增加，并且在未来几十年中还将继续增加。但是，这种变化的现实主义在文献中仍然受到热烈讨论。本文概述了洪水是否在过去发生了变化，并基于欧洲的例子探讨了大气，集水区和河流系统变化的驱动过程。审查了评估未来洪水是否可能增加的方法。在评估几十年或几个世纪的交货期的洪水变化时，考虑人水系统内的反馈非常重要。WIREs Water 2015，2：329–344。doi：10.1002 / wat2.1079