Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

中文翻译：

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在不同政策情景下，印度尼西亚中部加里曼丹省油棕扩建的收益和成本。

加里曼丹省中部的森林砍伐和油棕扩张是印度尼西亚最高的森林之一。本研究在三种政策情景下研究了加里曼丹中部直至2025年油棕扩张的物理和货币影响。我们的建模方法将空间逻辑回归模型与一组根据政策情景控制土地使用变化的规则相结合。我们的实物和货币分析包括棕榈油膨胀和其他五种生态系统服务：木材，藤条，水稻，碳固存和猩猩的栖息地（最后一项服务仅以物理单位进行分析）。在货币方面，我们的分析包括土地和生态系统对经济生产的贡献，这是根据国民账户体系的估值方法测得的。我们将分析的重点放在政府拥有的土地上，该土地覆盖了全省约97％的主要政策问题。我们表明，在一切照旧的情况下，碳排放的社会成本和其他生态系统服务的损失远远超过了油棕产量增加带来的收益。这尤其与泥炭地的转化有关。我们还表明，对于加里曼丹中部地区，基于当前印尼实行的暂停令而建立的暂停令情景，与照常营业情景相比，产生了重要的经济利益。但是，在暂停的情况下，仍然有森林向人工林的转化以及相关的生态系统服务的丧失。我们开发了一种替代方案