This paper presents a model of social network evolution, to predict and simulate changes in social networks induced by lifecycle events. We argue that social networks change with lifecycle events, and we extend a model of friendship selection to incorporate these dynamics of personal social networks. The model uses theories of homophily and reciprocity and is formulated in a random utility maximization framework to predict the formation of social ties between individuals in the population. It is then extended to predict the evolution of social networks in response to life cycle events. The model is estimated using attribute data of a national sample and an event-based retrospective dataset collected in 2009 and 2011 respectively. Findings suggest that homophily has a strong effect on the formation of new ties. However, heterophily also plays a role in maintaining existing ties. Although the motivation of this research stems from incorporating social network dynamics in large-scale travel behaviour micro-simulation models, the research can be used in a variety of fields for similar purposes.

中文翻译：

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用生命周期事件预测社交网络的演变

本文提出了一种社交网络演化模型，以预测和模拟由生命周期事件引起的社交网络变化。我们认为社交网络会随着生命周期事件而变化，并且我们扩展了一个友谊选择模型来合并这些个人社交网络的动态。该模型使用同质性和互惠性理论，并在随机效用最大化框架中制定，以预测人口中个人之间社会联系的形成。然后扩展到预测社交网络响应生命周期事件的演变。该模型使用国家样本的属性数据和分别于 2009 年和 2011 年收集的基于事件的回顾性数据集进行估计。研究结果表明，同质性对新关系的形成有很强的影响。然而，异质性也在维持现有联系方面发挥作用。虽然这项研究的动机源于将社交网络动态纳入大规模旅行行为微观模拟模型，但该研究可用于各种领域以达到类似目的。