Abstract Predation on livestock is a source of human-wildlife conflicts and can undermine the conservation of large carnivores. To design effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the determinants of predation across livestock species, which often differ in husbandry practices, vulnerability to predators and economic value. Moreover, attention should be given to both predation occurrence and intensity, because these can have different spatial patterns and predictors. We used spatial risk modelling to quantify factors affecting wolf predation on five livestock species in Portugal. Within the 1619 parishes encompassing the entire wolf range in the country, the national wolf compensation scheme recorded 17,670 predation events in 2009–2015, each involving one or more livestock species: sheep (31.7%), cattle (27.7%), goats (26.8%), horses (14.8%) and donkeys (3.2%). Models built with 2009–2013 data and validated with 2014–2015 data, showed a shared general pattern of predation probability on each species increasing with its own density and proximity to wolf packs. For some species there were positive relations with the density of other livestock species, and with habitat variables such as altitude, and land cover by shrubland and natural pastures. There was also a general pattern for predation intensity on each species increasing with its own density, while proximity to wolf packs had no significant effects. Predation intensity on goats, cattle and horses increased with the use of communal versus private pastures. Our results suggest that although predation may occur wherever wolves coexist with livestock species, high predation intensity is mainly restricted to particular areas where husbandry practices increase the vulnerability of animals, and this is where mitigation efforts should concentrate.

中文翻译：

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单点风险：模拟狼捕食多种牲畜的发生率和强度

摘要 对牲畜的捕食是人类与野生动物冲突的根源，会破坏大型食肉动物的保护。为了设计有效的缓解策略，重要的是了解牲畜物种捕食的决定因素，这些因素通常在畜牧业实践、对捕食者的脆弱性和经济价值方面有所不同。此外，应注意捕食发生和强度，因为它们可能具有不同的空间模式和预测因子。我们使用空间风险模型来量化影响狼捕食葡萄牙五种牲畜物种的因素。在涵盖该国整个狼群的 1619 个教区中，国家狼补偿计划在 2009-2015 年记录了 17,670 次捕食事件，每次都涉及一种或多种牲畜物种：绵羊 (31.7%)、牛 (27.7%)、山羊 (26.8) %), 马（14.8%）和驴（3.2%）。使用 2009-2013 年数据构建并使用 2014-2015 年数据验证的模型显示，每个物种的捕食概率的共同一般模式随着其自身密度和与狼群的接近程度而增加。对于某些物种，与其他牲畜物种的密度以及栖息地变量（如海拔高度、灌木地和天然牧场的土地覆盖率）存在正相关关系。每个物种的捕食强度也有一个一般模式，随着其自身密度的增加而增加，而靠近狼群没有显着影响。山羊、牛和马的捕食强度随着使用公共牧场和私人牧场而增加。我们的结果表明，虽然狼与家畜共存的地方可能会发生捕食，