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Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events
Nature ( IF 64.8 ) Pub Date : 2018-11-01 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0673-2
Christina M. Patricola , Michael F. Wehner

There is no consensus on whether climate change has yet affected the statistics of tropical cyclones, owing to their large natural variability and the limited period of consistent observations. In addition, projections of future tropical cyclone activity are uncertain, because they often rely on coarse-resolution climate models that parameterize convection and hence have difficulty in directly representing tropical cyclones. Here we used convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate whether and how recent destructive tropical cyclones would change if these events had occurred in pre-industrial and in future climates. We found that, relative to pre-industrial conditions, climate change so far has enhanced the average and extreme rainfall of hurricanes Katrina, Irma and Maria, but did not change tropical cyclone wind-speed intensity. In addition, future anthropogenic warming would robustly increase the wind speed and rainfall of 11 of 13 intense tropical cyclones (of 15 events sampled globally). Additional regional climate model simulations suggest that convective parameterization introduces minimal uncertainty into the sign of projected changes in tropical cyclone intensity and rainfall, which allows us to have confidence in projections from global models with parameterized convection and resolution fine enough to include tropical cyclones.Climate model simulations reveal that recent destructive tropical cyclones would have been equally intense in terms of wind speed but would have produced less rainfall if these events had occurred in pre-industrial climates, and in future climates they would have greater wind speeds and rainfall.

中文翻译:

人为对主要热带气旋事件的影响

由于热带气旋的自然变异性大且持续观测的时间有限,气候变化是否已经影响到热带气旋的统计数据尚未达成共识。此外,对未来热带气旋活动的预测是不确定的,因为它们通常依赖于参数化对流的粗分辨率气候模型,因此难以直接表示热带气旋。在这里,我们使用允许对流的区域气候模型模拟来研究如果这些事件发生在工业化前和未来的气候中,最近的破坏性热带气旋是否以及如何变化。我们发现,相对于工业化前的条件,迄今为止的气候变化增强了卡特里娜飓风、艾尔玛飓风和玛丽亚飓风的平均和极端降雨量,但并未改变热带气旋风速强度。此外,未来的人为变暖将大大增加 13 个强热带气旋中的 11 个(全球采样的 15 个事件)的风速和降雨量。其他区域气候模型模拟表明,对流参数化将最小的不确定性引入热带气旋强度和降雨量预测变化的迹象,这使我们能够对具有参数化对流和分辨率的全球模型的预测充满信心,足以包括热带气旋。气候模型模拟显示,最近的破坏性热带气旋在风速方面同样强烈,但如果这些事件发生在前工业化气候中,降雨量就会减少,
更新日期:2018-11-01
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