Abstract Identifying ongoing changes in the distributions of species is critical for understanding and conserving biological diversity. Distributional shifts have been demonstrated in many ecosystems and taxa, yet the extent and nature of these changes remain largely undocumented for tropical forest mammals. Shifts over short time periods can be particularly alarming in areas of the world where mammals are already under threat as a result of human activities. This is the case for Madagascar, an island where deforestation, hunting, invasive species, and other human threats have resulted in the extinction of several endemic species. Here, we ask, are the distributions of Malagasy mammals changing? We test this by modeling local colonization and extinction dynamics, which are the biological processes that produce distributional shifts. We use camera trap data from the TEAM Network for four species along a 570 m elevational gradient in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar. The endemic Eastern red forest rat (Nesomys rufus) declined in overall occupancy while the non-native bushpig (Potamochoerus larvatus) increased in occupancy overall. The two endemic carnivore species shifted their elevational use: the Malagasy ring-tailed mongoose (Galidia elegans) retracted from higher elevations and the Malagasy civet (Fossa fossana) moved to higher elevations, likely in response to anthropogenic pressures. These results show that shifts are occurring and we can detect them with just six years of data. These results appear near unique in documenting rapid changes in the spatial distributions of tropical forest mammals and provide important information for conservation.

中文翻译：

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生物多样性热点地区的分布变化

摘要 识别物种分布的持续变化对于理解和保护生物多样性至关重要。在许多生态系统和分类群中已经证明了分布变化，但这些变化的程度和性质在热带森林哺乳动物中基本上没有记录。在哺乳动物已经因人类活动而受到威胁的世界地区，短时间内的变化尤其令人担忧。马达加斯加就是这种情况，该岛的森林砍伐、狩猎、入侵物种和其他人类威胁导致了几种特有物种的灭绝。在这里，我们问，马达加斯加哺乳动物的分布是否发生了变化？我们通过模拟本地殖民化和灭绝动态来测试这一点，这些动态是产生分布变化的生物过程。我们使用来自马达加斯加拉诺马法纳国家公园 570 m 海拔梯度的四个物种的来自 TEAM 网络的相机陷阱数据。地方性东部红森林鼠 (Nesomys rufus) 的总体入住率下降，而非本地丛林猪 (Potamochoerus larvatus) 的总体入住率增加。这两种地方性食肉动物物种改变了它们的海拔用途：马达加斯加环尾猫鼬（Galidia elegans）从高海拔地区撤退，而马达加斯加麝香猫（Fossa fossana）则迁移到高海拔地区，这可能是为了应对人为压力。这些结果表明变化正在发生，我们只需六年的数据就可以检测到它们。这些结果在记录热带森林哺乳动物空间分布的快速变化方面似乎是独一无二的，并为保护提供了重要信息。