Abstract Calls to develop alternative methods of assessing the population status of pelagic shark populations have increased substantially in recent years. An interim solution has been the development of more subjective evaluation of data series (indicator-based analysis) rather than predictions from complex stock assessment models. This paper examines the reliability of indicators for predicting population status (i.e. whether it has been overfished) and the fishing pressure (i.e. whether overfishing is occurring) of large pelagic sharks, based on these fishery indicator trends alone. We simulate a variety of large pelagic shark populations under different exploitation scenarios using life history parameters, and measurable fishery indicators information (catch-per-unit of effort - CPUE; and average length - AL). Our simulation results, designed to be generalized (via sampling of realistic distributions) but based loosely on the shortfin mako shark, showed that the reliability of fishery indicators for establishing population status is dependent upon the length of the time series analyzed. These caveats are critical to the proper evaluation of population trajectories that underlie the most important conservation decisions being made for sharks today.

中文翻译：

---

能否使用简单的渔业指标确定远洋鲨鱼种群的状况？

摘要 近年来，开发评估远洋鲨鱼种群状况的替代方法的呼声大幅增加。一个临时解决方案是对数据系列进行更主观的评估（基于指标的分析），而不是从复杂的库存评估模型中进行预测。本文仅根据这些渔业指标趋势，检验了预测大型远洋鲨鱼种群状况（即是否被过度捕捞）和捕捞压力（即是否发生过度捕捞）的指标的可靠性。我们使用生活史参数和可测量的渔业指标信息（每单位努力的渔获量 - CPUE；和平均长度 - AL）模拟不同开发场景下的各种大型远洋鲨鱼种群。我们的模拟结果，旨在推广（通过对现实分布的抽样）但松散地基于短鳍鲭鲨，表明确定种群状况的渔业指标的可靠性取决于所分析的时间序列的长度。这些警告对于正确评估种群轨迹至关重要，而种群轨迹是当今为鲨鱼做出的最重要保护决策的基础。